1999 주식거래의 추억 : 주가는 미래가치를 담고 선행한다.

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|* * *      주가는 미래가치를 담고 선행한다.     대한투자연구회 * * *|
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|. 인간은 누구나 미래에 대한 꿈을 갖고 산다. 현실이 아무리 어렵다고  |
|  해도 미래에 대한 희망이 있으면 모든 괴로움을 참고 살아갈힘이 생기 |
|  는 것이다                                                         |
|. 주가도 과거나 현재의 가치만으로는 큰 폭의 가격상승은 기대하기 어렵|
|  다. 오히려 지금의 기업내용이 부실하다고 하더라도 미래에 호전될 만 |
|  한 가능성을 강하게 갖고 있으면 주가는 상승하게 된다               |
|. 주식시세에 있어서 미래에 대한 호재성 재료가 기업의 실적에 얼마나  |
|  도움을 줄 것인가에 대해서는 2차적인 문제이다                      |
|. 우선은 미래의 호재성재료가 사람들에게 무한한 상상력으로 크게 보일 |
|  수 있으면 주가는 급등을 하게 되는 것이다. 모든 재료가 그렇듯이 실 |
|  현화되기 전까지는 무한히 크고 핑크빛으로는 보이는 것이다          |
|  그러나 그것이 현실로 다가오면 주가는 내려가고 만다. 그 이유는 사람|
|  들이 생각했던 것 보다는 작게 현실로 나타나기 때문이다             |
|. 호재성 재료의 습성을 잘 살펴보면 사람들이 정확히 모르고 있을때 주 |
|  가에 크게 영향을 미치고 실현단계로 접어들면 오히려 실망으로 인해  |
|  주가를 하락하게 하는 것이다                                       |
|. 따라서 꿈을 지닌 장래의 호재성 재료가 있을 때는 그 꿈이 불 확실하 |
|  고 정확하게 윤곽이 드러나기 전에 매입에 나서야 하고 차츰 실질적이 |
|  고 구체적인 내용이 알려지기 시작하면 주식을 팔기 시작해야 하는 것 |
|  이다                                                              |
|. 그러나 일반투자자들은 처음에는 몰라서 못사거나 구체적으로 확인할  |
|  수 없어서 머뭇거리다가 신문이나 TV.라디오 등을 통해 자세한 내용이 |
|  알려지면 그때서야 매입에 나선다                                   |
|. 그리고 나서 주가가 떨어지면 왜떨어지는지 도저히 이해할 수 없다는  |
|  예기를 하는 것이다                                                |
|. 주가란 미래의 가치를 수치화시켜 놓은 것이기 때문에 벌써 그 이전에 |
|  미리 반영되었다는 것을 미처 깨닫지 못해서 이런 실수를 범한 것이다 |
|. 주식을 사기 전에 그 종목에 대한 장래의 사업계획예정 등을 살펴보는 |
|  것도 미래의 가치를 판단하는데 중요한 요인이 될 것이다             |
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|* * *     매도할 종목을 매입가격 기준으로 선정하지 마라        * * *|
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|. 투자자들은 대부분 자기의 매입가격보다 올라간 종목은 처분하기 쉬워 |
|  도 손해난 종목은 좀처럼 매도하기 어려워 한다                      |
|. 현금이 필요해지면 갖고 있는 주식 중에서 더 오를 여력이 충분해도 이|
|  익이 많이 난 주식을 처분하는 경우가 대부분이다                    |
|. 그러나 주식투자는 감정적인 어려움을 극복할 줄 아는 사람이 성공할  |
|  가능성이 높다                                                     |
|. 나무가 자랄 때도 옆으로 잘못자라는 것은 가지치기를 하고 똑바로 잘 |
|  자라는 나무는 계속 자라도록 하는 것이 올바른 생각인 줄은 알면서 주|
|  식투자에서는 잘 오르고 있는 주식은 팔아버리고 선정을 잘못하여 손해|
|  보고 있는 주식은 꽉 쥐고 있다                                     |
|. 이러한 실수를 하는 이유는 매도 종목을 고를때 그 기준을 매입가격에 |
|  두고 있기 때문이다                                                |
|. 물론 가격이 너무 급상승하여 하락할 기미가 보인다면 마땅히 매도해야|
|  하지만 상승여력이 보이는 데도 손해난 종목은 매도하기 어렵기 때문에|
|  잘 오르고 있는 주식을 팔아 버린다면 어리석은 짓이라 하겠다        |
|. 장세가 상승세인데도 다른 종목처럼 오르지 못하고 있는 주식들은 하락|
|  세로 장세가 바뀌면 그동안 오르지 않았어도 덩달아 내려버려 이중의  |
|  손해를 보게 된다                                                  |
|. 실패한 투자는 과감히 손절매를 하고 이익이 나는 종목에 집중투자하는|
|  것이 바람직한 투자방법이며 남들이 하기 어려운 결심도 할 줄 알아야 |
|  보다 더 투자에 성공할 가능성도 큰것이다                           |
|. 따라서 매도 종목을 결정할 때에는 매입가격에 의해 선정하는 것보다는|
|  주가상승이력을 기준으로 결정해야 하며 현재 손해를 보고 있는 주식이|
|  라 해도 하락기미가 보이면 지체없이 던질 줄 알아야 한다            |
|. 손해를 보고 있는 종목은 시세에 관계 없이 일단 투자에 실패한 경우이|
|  며 이익이 올려준 종목은 주가예측이 적중하여 예상대로 움직이고 있는|
|  것이다                                                            |
|.따라서 보유주식을 정리할때는 일반적인 인간의 심리상태로는 어려운 일|
| 이지만 상승세에 있는 종목은 그대로 보유하고 손해보고 있는 종목을 처|
| 분해야 이익본 것과 손해본 것을 합쳐볼 때 이익이 크게 되는 것이다   |
|.투자를 할때 항시 성공할 수는 없으므로 손실은 적게 보고 이익이 있을 |
| 때 크게 투자이익을 올리도록 해야 한다                              |
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|* * *            기관투자가들의 매매현황을 파악하라            * * *|
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|. 주식시장 초기에는 전체 시가총액이 별로 크지를 않기 때문에 소수의  |
|  매집세력.소위"큰손"이라고 불리우는 사람들에 의해서 장세가 주도되어|
|  왔다                                                              |
|. 그러나. 지금은 기존의 상장회사들이 증자를 하고 신규 상장회사들도  |
|  상당히 늘어 개인투자가보다는 기관투자가들의 비중이 상대적으로 높아|
|  가고 있다                                                         |
|. 1982년 사채파동으로 큰 손들의 계보가 무너지고 1983년 하반기부터 시|
|  행된 부분명제로 그들의 역할이 매우 약화되고 있다                  |
|. 우리나라에서 기관투자가중 가장 활발한 움직임을 보이고 있는 것은 투|
|  자신탁으로 종래의 채권중심의 자산운영에서 주식으로 변화하고 있다  |
|. 또한. 증권회사들은 그들의 상품매매를 통해서 주식시장내 강력한 영향|
|  력을 행사하고 있다                                                |
|. 그외에 1992년 자본자유화를 앞두고 코리아 펀드를 비롯한 외국인 투자|
|  도 앞으로 상당한 비중을 차지할 것으로 보이며. 은행.보험회사 및 정 |
|  부나 민간단체의 각종기금들오 그들의 역할을 넓혀갈 것이다          |
|. 이렇게 기관투자가들의 비중이 커지면 전체 주식시장에 있어서 시세나 |
|  인기주의 향방은 기관에서의 투자와 밀접한 관계를 갖게 된다  즉. 기 |
|  관에서 사면 오르고 팔면 떨어지며 인기주도 기관의 매매에 의해 좌우 |
|  될 것이다. 지난 1984년 봄에 있었던 전자. 제약주를 중심으로 한 소형|
|  성장주 시세가 그 대표적인 예가 된다                               |
|. 주식투자가들은 종목선택시 기관이 어떤 종목을 사고 파는지를 정확히 |
|  파악해서 매매를 결정해야 할 것이다                                |
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| * * *               정보분석 능력을 길러라                   * * * |
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|.장세가 활황이든 침체장이든 쉬지 않고 객장내에 떠도는 것이 증시루머 |
| 이다.더구나 요즈음은 일간 신문에서도 루머사항을 다루고 있기 때문에 |
| 투자자들이 루머에 현혹되어 투자하는 경우도 흔하다                  |
|.예전에는 이러한 거짓정보도 투자수익을 올리는데 도움을 주긴 했으나  |
| 이제는 기업공시가 빨라져 부인공시라도 나오면 그만 주가는 그 동안 올|
| 랐던 몫이 한꺼번에 주져 앉아 버리고 만다.과연 홍수처럼 쏟아지는 무 |
| 분별한 정보속에서 투자자가 얼마나 분석능력을 갖고 적절히 대처할 것 |
| 인가는 매우 의아심이 앞서게 된다                                   |
|.흔히 루머라고하면 그 해당기업내에서 만들어 진다고 생각하기 쉬우나  |
| 실상은 그렇지 않다.그 기업과는 전혀 무관한 외부 집단세력에 의해 조 |
| 작되는 경우가 많은 것이다                                          |
|.따라서 기업에 관한 수 많은 정보를 이용하여 투자를 하려면 수집된 정 |
| 보를 자기 스스로 걸러서 이용할 줄 아는 정보분석 능력이 요구되는 것 |
| 이다.물론 이러한 분석능력은 하루아침에 이뤄지는 것도 아니고 그리 쉬|
| 운 일도 아니다                                                     |
|.그러나 어차피 주식투자를 계속할 작정이라면 하지 않으면 안되는 필수 |
| 불가결한 요구 조건인 것이다.주식투자에서 돈 번 사람들은 소수에 불과|
| 하며 이러한 그룹에 속하기 위해서는 자기 나름대로의 노력이 필요한 것|
| 이다                                                               |
|.누구나 쉽게 돈을 버는 것이 주식투자라면 여러분들은 지금 곧 바로 주 |
| 식을 사고 팔면 되는 것이다.그러나 기대수익이 큰 만큼 위험성도 크게 |
| 내포하고 있기 때문에 보다 체계적으로 투자기법을 습득하고 나머지는  |
| 실전을 통해 차츰 성공률을 높여 가야 하는 것이다                    |
|.언제까지나 남의 의견만을 쫒아 투자하기란 여간 힘든 일이 아니며 자기|
| 의 정보망을 갖고 있는 것은 남들이 볼때도 부러운 일이나 그 정보를 갈|
| 고 다듬을 줄 모른다면 돼지에게 진주라는 말이 실감나게 될 것이다    |
|.주식투자는 확률게임이라고 흔히들 말한다.그러한 확률은 누구에게나 똑|
| 같이 주어지는 것은 아니다                                          |
|.정보수집능력.자체판단능력등에 따라 시작은 같아도 투자결과는 사람마 |
| 다 달리 나타나는 것임을 명심해야 한다                              |
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| * * *           결단력이 부족하면 얻는 것도 적다             * * * |
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|.주식투자에 성공하기 위해서는 시세의 변화에 적절하게 매수와 매도 그 |
| 리고 쉬는 타이밍을 잘 선정해야 한다.주식투자는 아무 때나 사고 판다 |
| 고 해서 성공하는 것은 아니다.시세의 변동에 맞게 공격적인 투자를 할 |
| 것인가 방어적인 투자를 할 것인가를 면밀히 검토해야 한다.그런데 문제|
| 는 지금이 공격적인 투자를 할 타이밍이라고 느끼면서도 지나치게 신중 |
| 히 한다고 우물쭈물 하는데 있다                                     |
|.투자에는 반드시 호기가 있으며 오랜 기다림 후에 이러한 공격투자의 기|
| 회가 왔을때는 과감한 투자가 필요한 것이다.결단력이 부족하여 매수의 |
| 시기가 늦어 버리면 그만큼 얻어지는 것도 적을 수 밖에 없다.         |
|.동전을 높이 던져서 앞과 뒤가 나올 확률은 반반이다.내기에서도 51%의 |
| 가능성이 있으면 49%의 측보다는 상대적으로 유리한데 하물며 80~90%의 |
| 확신이 있는데도 10~20%의 불안요인 때문에 결단을 못내린다면 그 사람 |
| 은 주식투자할 필요가 없으며 본질적으로 주식투자가 적성에 맞지 않는 |
| 것이다.                                                            |
|.기회는 언제나 있는 것이 아니다.기회가 왔을때 잡지 못하면 성공투자의|
| 확률은 그만큼 떨어지는 것이다.물론 주식투자를 할때 조심성이 필요하 |
| 며 절제력이 요구되지만 커다란 가능성을 앞에 두고 너무 신중하게 생각|
| 하다 보면 어느새 기회는 물거품이 되어 버리며 시간이 지나 시세가 한 |
| 참 상승한 후에 막차타는 식의 투자로는 결코 투자에 성공할 수가 없는 |
| 것이다.                                                            |
|.대개 시세는 움직이던 방향으로 계속 진행하려는 특성을 갖고 있으므로 |
| 대세의 전환이 오기 위해서는 특수한 패턴이 나타나기 마련이며 가장 큰|
| 변화는 거래량에서부터 오게 된다.오랜 침체기 속에서 거래량이 한산하 |
| 다가 점진적으로 거래량이 늘면서 인기 주도주의 가격이 10% 이상 오르 |
| 고 매기가 다른 업종으로 확산하고 있으면 대세 전환의 신호로 보아 무 |
| 방하다.이럴 때에는 과감히 주식보유 비율을 높여 가는 것이 필요하며  |
| 기회는 소녀처럼 왔다가 토끼처럼 달아난다는 말을 명심해야 할 것이다.|
----------------------------------------------------------------------
======================================================================
|       * * *     연관된 업종이 무엇인가를 생각하라      * * *       |
======================================================================
|.주가는 전체적인 수급상황과 가지고 있는 재료를 바탕으로 형성되지만  |
| 속해 있는 업종이 다른 종목의 영향은 받아 덩달아 오르는 경우가 많다 |
|.포철주 공개때 철강주가 큰 폭으로 상승한 이유가 바로 이때문이다.    |
|.뿐만 아니라 타업종과 연관되어 오르는 경우가 있는데 1975년부터 1978 |
| 년에 이르는 건설주 호황때 건설과 관련하여 건축자재 업종인 시멘트.철|
| 강주가 각광을 받은 예가 있다                                       |
|.주식투자가중에서 성공하는 투자가들은 현재 인기를 얻고 있는 주식에  |
| 연관된 것이 무엇인가를 남들 보다 먼저 찾아내서 투자할 줄 아는 사람 |
| 들이다                                                             |
|.현재 큰 폭으로 오르고 있는 인기주에 뒤늦게 뛰어들어 손해를 보는 어 |
| 리석은 투자가가 되는 것보다는 주가의 연동관계를 알고 관련주를 찾아 |
| 서 투자를 해야 한다                                                |
|.전문 프로 투자가들은 상상력을 최대한 발휘해서 관련종목들을 찾아내고|
| 그 중에서 아직 적게 오른 종목들을 집중적으로 공략한다              |
|.유전개발과 관련하여 유화주가 관심의 초점이 되어 있으면 구태여 사기 |
| 힘들고 가격 상승이 큰 유화주를 사려고 할 필요가 없다               |
|.자국산 원유를 원료로 사용하면 만든 유화제품값이 대폭인하될 것이고  |
| 유화제품을 원료로 하는 합섬주도 수지가 크게 개선될 것이다          |
|.이런 식으로 연상을 하면 합섬주가 인기주로 떠 오르고 합섬을 원료로  |
| 하는 섬유주까지 같이 가격 상승을 가져오게 되는 것이다              |
|.따라서 유화주보다는 합섬주나 섬유주가 가격 상승이 적었을 테니까 한 |
| 발 앞서 관련주를 사 갖고 있으면 보다 높은 수익률을 올릴수 있게 된다|
|.일반 투자가들이 전문 투자가보다 높은 수익률을 거둘 수 없는 이유 중 |
| 의 하나가 주가의 연동관계를 잘 모르고 관련주를 찾아내는 능력이 부족|
| 하기 때문이다                                                      |
|.결국 인기가 붙어서 가격 상승이 이루어진 다음에 가서야 살려고 마음을|
| 먹기 때문에 고가에 매입을 하게 되는 것이다                         |
|.눈 앞에 있는 것만 보지 말고 항상 새로운 감각으로 주식시장을 바라볼 |
| 줄 알아야 실패할 확률을 줄일 수 있고 성공 투자가 대열에 들어갈 수  |
| 있다는 것을 명심하여야 할 것이다                                   |
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======================================================================
|* * *           높은 가격으로 대량거는 일단 주의하라           * * *|
======================================================================
|. 촛불이 꺼지기직전이 가장 밝아보이듯이 증시도 각종호재성 재료들이  |
|  즐비하고 대량의 거래와 함께 주가가 폭동할때가 대부분 천정일 경우가|
|  많다.                                                             |
|. 그러나 대개의 초심자들은 이대가 되면 오히려 주식을 못사서 조바심내|
|  고 과열장세분위기에 빠져 헤어날줄을 모른다                        |
|. 연일 신문등 언론매체에서는 주가폭등. 과열증시라는 단어가 나오고 어|
|  디를 가나 주식에 관한 예기가 화제거리가 된다.                     |
|. 이럴때 오히려 큰 매집세력이나 기관투자가들은 그동안 보유했던 주식 |
|  들을 처분하고 있는 것이다                                         |
|. 따라서 이럴대는 섣불리 매입에 나서는 것은 좋지 않다               |
|. 남들이 투매에 나서거나 신문등에 증시부양책. 증시장기침체우려등의  |
|  기사로 완전히 침체국면에 접어들었다고 할대가 거의 바닥권이므로 이 |
|  때 주식을 사면 위험도 줄일수 있고 비교적 높은 투자이익을 올릴수 있|
|  으므로 섣불리 전문가들의 이용물이 되지 않도록 주의해야 한다       |
|. 그러나 자기도 모르게 뇌동매매를 하는 경우가 실지사항이므로 자기나 |
|  름대로 주식을 팔고 사기전에 체크 포인트를 만들어 놓은것도 그러한  |
|  위험을 줄일 수 있는 좋은 방법이다                                 |
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======================================================================
| * * *               대세의 흐름을 먼저 보아라                * * * |
======================================================================
|.주가는 살아서 움직인다는 말을 자주한다.매일의 주가지수를 도표화 시 |
| 켜보면 마치 파도가 출렁거리듯이 올라가거나 내려가고 있음을 볼수있다|
| 그러나 하루하루의 시세는 넓은 바다위의 잔물결과 같아서 수시로  먼저|
| 보아야 한다.대세라는 것은 쉽사리 바뀌는 것이 아니기 때문에 시장의  |
| 기조가 상승세를 타고 있으면 주식을 사모으고 하향세를 보일때는  팔고|
| 쉬어야 한다.그러나 초심자들은 하루하루의 시세에만 집착해서 대세가  |
| 어느쪽으로 향해 있는가를 망각하는일이 많다.대세가 살아서 움직여  줄|
| 때에는 왠만한 종목을 사더라도 이익을 보는 확률이 높지만 대세가 좋지|
| 았을때는 특별히 개별호재가 있는 종목을 매입했을때외에는 실패를  볼 |
| 확률이 크다.따라서 먼저 대세의 흐름을 파악을 하고 어느 단계에 와 있|
| 는가를 먼저 알고 난후에 매매전략을 세워야 한다.                    |
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======================================================================
|            *** 보합시세는 무너지는 쪽으로 붙어라 ***               |
======================================================================
|. 강세란 매도세력보다 매수세력이커서 주가가 상승하는것이고 약세란 반|
|  대현상으로 인해 주가가 하락하는 것이다.                           |
|. 보합이란 강세도 약세도 아닌 매매하고자하는 양쪽의 세력이 균형을 이|
|  루어 시세의 움직임이 없이 횡보하는 현상을 말한다                  |
|. 보합현상은 강세로든 약세로든 깨어지기 마련이며 어느쪽으로 무너질지|
|  예측하기가 상당히 어려우므로 보합시세를 보일때에는 장세에 뛰어들지|
|  않는 것이 좋다.                                                   |
|. 또한 보합시세가 어느 쪽으로든 움직이기 시작하면 그 방향으로 따라  |
|  붙는 것이 정석이다.                                               |
|. 즉 상승세로 기울면 매입을 해야 할 것이며 하락세로 무너지면 매도를 |
|  해야 할 것이다                                                    |
|. 이때 일반 투자가들이 주의해야 할 것은 보합의 균형이 끼어지는 것처 |
|  럼 보이다가도 다시 보합으로 주저앉아 버리기도 하고 약세로 무너지는|
|  듯하다가 약세로 기우는 속임수 형에  유의해야한다                  |
|. 따라서 보합이 무너지면 확인을 한 후에 매수를 할 것인가 매도를 할  |
|  것인가를 결정해야 한다                                            |
|. 보합 중에는 삼각보합이 있는데 그래프 상에서 주가변동 모양이 삼각형|
|  의 깃발 모양을 그리며 처음에는 큰 폭으로 등락하며 보합을 유지하다 |
|  가 차츰 그 폭이 줄어들면서 움직임이 정지하는 것을 말한다          |
|. 이 삼각형의 보합시세는 정지하는 시점에 가면 어느 방향으로든 보합이|
|  무너지게 되므로 유심히 살펴보아야 한다                            |
|. 우리가 신문에서 자주 대하는 용어중에 박스권이란 것이 있는데 일정한|
|  주가의 범위안에서 등락을 되풀이 하는 것을 가리키는 말이다         |
|. 따라서 주가가 박스권안에서 갇펴 있을 때에는 급히 장세에 뛰어들지  |
|  말고 박스권에서 주가가 벗어났을때 상승세로 가는지 하락세로 들어서 |
|  는지를 판단 하여야 한다                                           |
|. 일반적으로 조정기간이 길면 길수록 에너지 축적기간이 충분하여 큰 시|
|  세가 오는 경우가 많다                                             |
|. 또한 고가권에서의 보합은 위험하므로 매수에 가담하지 않는 것이 좋고|
|  저가권에서 생기는 보합은 새로운 상승으로 이어지는 경우가 많으므로 |
|  조금씩 매입해 들어가도 무리가 없을 것이다                         |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------+
*====================================================================*
|             *** 지시선과 저항선을 알고 투자하라                    |
----------------------------------------------------------------------
|. 지시선이란 주가의 하락세를 멈추는데 충분한 대기 매수세가 포진되어 |
|  있는 곳으로 이 선까지만 오면 대기 매수세가 가담하여 주가를 끌어   |
|  올리게 된다.                                                      |
|. 반면에 저항선이란 지시선과는 반대로 주가가 더 이상 상승할 수 없도 |
|  록 대기 매도세가 있는 곳이며 이 근처에만 오면 매도물량이 쏟아져   |
|  주가는 더 이상 상승하지 못하고 하락하게 된다.                     |
|. 이러한 현상은 주가가 일정한 박스권 안에서 조정을 보일 때 잘 나타나|
|  며 지지선과 저항선을 잘 포착해 놓으면 조정장세에서도 남들 보다 높 |
|  은 투자수익을 기대할 수 있다.                                     |
|. 투자자 누구나가 흔히 겪는 일이지만 매입한 주식의  가격이 떨어지게 |
|  되면 매입한 가격까지 오르면 팔겠다는 생각을 갖고 있고 매도한 주식 |
|  의 가격이 오르면 판 가격으로 한번 더 매입할 기회를 기다리게 되는것|
|  이다.                                                             |
|. 주가에 대한 이러한 투자심리가 챠트상에 지지선과 저항선으로 나타나 |
|  는 것이다.                                                        |
|. 주식투자자들의 심리상태가 각양각색인 것과 마찬가지로 지지선과 저항|
|  선 추세는 복잡하고 다양하게 나타나 곧장 그 범주에서 벗어나는 듯하 |
|  며 일정기간 동안 같은 방향으로 움직이는 추세는 이러한 지지선이나  |
|  저항선을 만나기 전까지는 한 방향으로 움직인다.                    |
|. 챠트는 하나지만 그 챠트를 보고 분석하는 사람에 따라 내용은 서로 다|
|  르게 나오기 때문에 챠트가 더욱 어려운 것인지도 모른다.            |
|. 지지선과 저항선사이에서 주가가 조정을 보일 때 주의할 점은 일단 조 |
|  정상태에서 벗어나 전과는 다른 패턴을 형성할 때 어느 쪽으로 움직이 |
|  는가를 세밀히 살펴보아야 한다.                                    |
|. 만일 지지선 아래로 밀려 버릴 때는 대기 매수세보다 강력한 매도세가 |
|  있다는 뜻이므로 섣불리 매수에 가담하면 위험하며. 이와는 반대로 저 |
|  항선을 꿰뚫고 주가가 상승할 때에는 대기 매도세보다 강력한 매수기반|
|  이 조성됐다는 뜻이므로 너무 성급한 매도보다는 왜 그러한 현상이 나 |
|  타났는지 젼의 재료를 점검해 보는 것이 좋다.                       |
|. 이렇듯이 지지선과 저항선을 잘 포착하여 투자를 하면 성공투자의 가능|
|  성은 더욱 높아진다고 하겠다.                                      |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------+
======================================================================
|          * * *     전과가 있는 주식이 잘 오른다      * * *         |
======================================================================
|. 주식시장에 있는 많은 업종과 종목들은 상승과 하락의 폭.조정폭 등 그|
|  개성이 모두 다른 상태에서 주가가 움직이고 거래된다.이들 업종 혹은 |
|  종목들 중에서 움직임이 빠른 종목들이 있다. 투자자들은 과거 한번 경|
|  험한 수익실적이 좋았던 종목들은 좀처럼 잊지 않고 또 다시 재도전을 |
|  하게 된다. 아뭏튼 그 주식이 어떤 재료에 의해 움직이든 투자자들에게|
|  좋게 보이고 매력이 있는 주식은 거듭 상승하게 되어 있다.           |
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======================================================================
|            *** 주식을 사고 팔기전에 점검할 사항 ***                |
======================================================================
|. 주식투자의 승패는 종목선정과 매매타이밍에 있으며 가장 중요한 시점 |
|  은 매매결정을 하고 증권회사에 주문을 내기까지의 시간이다.         |
|. 이때 뇌동매매나 자기나름대로의 판단기준없이 순간적인 감정에 의해  |
|  주문을 내는 투자자도 상당히 많다                                  |
|. 만약 투자자들이 합리적인 매매지침없이 기분에 의해 매매결정을 하게 |
|  되면 우연한 몇번의 성공은 기대할수 있으나 계속되는 투자에 있어서  |
|  결국 투자손실을 잃을 확률이 더욱 트게 될 것이다                   |
|. 따라서 매매주문을 내기 전에 자기나름대로의 점검사항을 마련해 놓는 |
|  것이 투자성공을 거둘수 있는 확률을 높이게 될 것이다               |
| - 현재 주식시장이 상승.하락.보합.전환국면중 어느단계에 와 있는가?  |
| - 주식시장 주위에 널려있는 재료로 보아 향후 주식시장은 어떤 국면으 |
|   로 들어갈 것인가?                                                |
| - 매매하려고 하는 주식이 뇌동매매에 의한것인가 아니면 이성적 판단에|
|   의한 것인가?                                                     |
| - 유.무상증자 공시나 그러한 풍문은 없는가?                         |
| - 주식의 신용상태아 공매상태는 어떠한가?                           |
| - 챠트분석은 매도신호인가.매입신호인가.아니면 관망신호인가?        |
| - 자본금 규모.결산기.재무상태등은 어떠한가?                        |
|. 위의 점검사항외에 본인 스스로 경험한 사항들을 함께 검토하여 매매  |
|  결정을 한다면 투자위험을 최소한으로 줄이고 투자성공 가능성을 더욱 |
|  높일 수 있을 것이다                                               |
|. 주식투자는 오랫동안 했다고 해서 늦게 주식투자를 한사람보다 잘하는 |
|  것은 아니다                                                       |
|. 짧은기간이라도 자기나름대로의 투자방법을 갖고 체계적인 투자기법에 |
|  대한 연구를 해서 실력을 쌓고 매매하기전의 점검사항등을 토대로 투자|
|  를 해나가면 점차적으로 투자성공의 확률을 높혀갈 수 있는 것이다    |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------+
======================================================================
|       ***  매집세력이 가담했다는 주식은 소홀히하지 마라   ***      |
======================================================================
|-  기업에 대한 무상증자나 자산재평가와 같이 주가에 커다란 영향을 끼 |
|   치는 호재성 재료들은 처음에는 일부 내부자밖에는 알수가 없다      |
|-  그러나 주가란 일부소수만이 알아서는 크게 상승하기 힘들고 점차 소 |
|   문이 퍼져 다수의 매수세력이 가담해서 크게 오르게 된다            |
|-  주식시장이 살아움직이기 위해서는 주도주가 필요하듯이 큰 시세가 오|
|   기위해서는 반드시 그 시세를 선도하는 매립세력이 필요하고 거기에  |
|   일반투자까지 가담하게되면 주가는 크게 상승한다                   |
|-  이른바 큰손세력들은 어떤 종목이나 업종에 호재성 재표가 잇으면 먼 |
|   저 자기네들이 필요한 물량을 확보하고 그것이 마무리되는대로 재료를|
|   크게 확대시켜 소문을 퍼뜨리면서 주가를 끌어올리는 작전을 쓴다    |
|-  따라서 소문이 나면서 주가가 오르기 시작하면 큰손들의 작전이 시작 |
|   되었다고 볼수 있다                                               |
|-  소위 인기주는 큰 세력 집단이나 기관투자가와 같은 자본능력이 큰 특|
|   정세력에 의해 만들어지는 것이 보통이기 때문에 매집세력이 가담했다|
|   는 주식을 무조건 소홀히 하면 투자이익극대화 조건중 한가지를 빠뜨 |
|   리는 결과가 된다                                                 |
|-  많은 투자이익을 남길수 있는 인기주를 외면하면 어디서 투자승부를  |
|   볼것인가 막연하기만 하다                                         |
|-  물론 아무리 인기주라 할지라도 매매시기를 잘못잡아서 고가에서 잡  |
|   아버리면 큰 낭패가 아닐수 없다                                   |
|-  매매시기는 비교적 매집세력들의 작전초기에 가담해서 큰 세력들이 매|
|   도물량을 내놓기 전에 바져 나오면 큰 투자이익을 올릴수 있다       |
|-  그러나 그것이 그리쉽지않기 때문에 거래량의 변동사항이라든가 자기 |
|   나름대로의 정보판단 능력을 갖추지 않으면 안된다                  |
|-  어떤 정보를 입수하여 실제로 주식을 살때 주의해야 할 점은 그 주식 |
|   의 시세가 지금 어느 단계에 와 있는가하는 점이다                  |
|-  이미 오를때로 오른 주식에 뛰어든다면 크나큰 손실을 입기쉬우며 인 |
|   기주의 특성상 천정권에 가까워지면 호재성 재료가 난무하며 대량의  |
|   거래량을 수반하는 것이 통례이기 때문에 큰 손들이 쏟아붓는 매물을 |
|   사는 결과를 가져올수도 있다                                      |
|-  다라서 매집세력이 가담했다는 주식에 관심을 갖되 그 주식을 매입할 |
|   것인가의 결정은 각종 주변상황을 종합판단한 후에 하는것이 바람직함|
+--------------------------------------------------------------------+
======================================================================
|                * * * 중장기 투자종목 선정법 * * *                  |
======================================================================
| 다가오는 대망의 93년도를 맞이함에 앞서 유망투자종목을 선정할때는   |
| 크게 두가지 재료에 의해 선정할 수가 있는데 첫번째가 실적호전 종목군|
| 즉 성장저PER종목군을 눈여겨 보는것과 둘째로 300일을 기준으로 그래프|
| 를 디스플레이시켜 장.중.하중 제일 하단에 놓여 있는 종목군을 선정하 |
| 는 방법이 있는데 두번째 방법은 관련종목이 부도만 나지 않는 다면    |
| 결국 내린 만큼 재차 상승할 가능성이 높다는데 기준을 둔 것이다.     |
| 2가지 방법 모두 일장 일단이 있으나 긴 시세를 염두해 두고 투자하는  |
| 것이라면 반드시 고려해야 할 투자방법 중의 하나라 하겠다.           |
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======================================================================
|          * * * 경기에 따른 주식투자와 채권투자 * * *               |
======================================================================
| 우리나라 경기를 3.3.4사이클 경기로 보는 견해로 3년 호황기 3년침체기|
| 4년 회복기로 분류하는데 92년도부터 95년도까지를 회복기로 보며 96년 |
| 도 부터는 본격적인 경기의 활황기로 예측한다.이때 자금의 흐름은 이익|
| 율을 따라 움직이는데 호황기에는 주식투자의 비중을 높이고 침체기에는|
| 채권투자의 비중을 높이는 것이 유리하다.한편 침체기에서 호황기로 넘 |
| 어가는 국면인 회복기는 장기적 측면에서 주가바닥이라고 보는데 이러한|
| 근거는 침체기때 큰 자금이 채권쪽으로 몰려있다가 회복기에 접어들면서|
| 점차 주식쪽으로 유입되기 때문이다.                                 |
| 더구나 새로이 대권을 넘겨받은 대통령의 최우선 과제가 경기회복이라는|
| 면을 생각해볼때 향후 국내경기의 침체기 탈출과 아울러 주식시장의    |
| 기나긴 어둠의 터널도 끝이 보인다 하겠다.설령 단기적인 과열에 의한  |
| 조정을 받는다하여도 이는 단기적인 시세일뿐 89년도 이후 하락세를 보 |
| 여왔던 국내증시도 점차 안정을 다지는 국면이 나타나리라 본다.       |
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======================================================================
|                  *** 양선 GAP 종목 선정법 ***                      |
======================================================================
| 주가가 하락세를 보이는 과정은 크게 2가지로 구분하면 장중 보합이상의|
| 가격까지 상승하다가 하락하는 이슬비장세와 전일저가보다 한번도 높은 |
| 가격을 형성하지 못한채 투자심리를 극도로 냉각시키는 상태에서 하락세|
| 를 보이는 투매장세가 있는데 특히 GAP을 동반한 양선의 모양새를 하고 |
| 있는 종목을 선정하는 방법은 당일양선. 즉 자동검색란에서 상향기울기 |
| (당일)을 선택하고 순위검색에서 주가하락율(당일)을 동시에 선택했을  |
| 때 해당종목군이 포함되어서 검색된다                                |
| 이때 주의점은 전일주가가 하락한 상태에서 연속해서 주가가 하락해야  |
| 투매현상이지 전일주가가상승한 상태에서의 금일 주가하락은 상승에 의 |
| 한 하락이기 때문에 의미가 없다는 점이며 이때 MAGIC 챠트의 굵은선이 |
| 매수권대에 진입해 있을대 해당종목의 반등가능성은 상대적으로 타종목 |
| 에 비해 높다고 하겠다                                              |
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======================================================================
|               *** 주가를 움직이는 최대 재료는 ? ***                |
======================================================================
|. 년말이 다가옴에 따라 92년도에 얼마나 주식투자를 효율적으로 하였는 |
|  가에 대해 본인 스스로 점검해 볼 필요성이 느껴지는 가운데 다가오는 |
|  93년도에는 어떠한 방법으로 투자를 해야 좀더 나은 투자수익율을 올릴|
|  수 있는가에 관심이 모아진다                                       |
|. 그렇다면 우선 먼저 점검해 보아야할 문제가 주가상승을 위해 가장 크 |
|  게 작용하는 주요인자 즉 주가상승의 재료가 무엇인가를 파악하지 않으|
|  면 안될 것이다                                                    |
|. 올해는 자본자유화를 시행한 첫해로서 일반투자자에게는 다소 생소하게|
|  들렸던 PER (Price Earnings Ratio ;주가수익비율) 이란 단어가 이제는|
|  친숙하게 들리게 되었는데 이는 결국 기업의 영업역에 바탕을 둔 순이 |
|  익과 관련되는 것으로서 자본자유화 이전에는 기업의 내재가치야 어떻 |
|  든 인위적인 주가흐름으로 왜곡이 심했던 것에 비교해보면 이제는 상대|
|  적으로 실질가치를 중시하고 기업의 본연의 목적인 이익추구를 얼마나 |
|  잘하고 있느냐에 따라 주가향방이 크게 좌우된다고 하겠다            |
|. 이는 곧 매출증가와 신제품개발과도 상통하는 것이며 어떤 업체의 향후|
|  이익증가가 기대되는 재료가 발생했을때 해당기업의 주가상승가능성이 |
|  높아지는 정석적인 주가흐름으로 진행되고 있는 것이다               |
|. PER에는 크게 나누어 2가지로 분류할수가 있는데 첫째가 단순 저PER의 |
|  개념이고 둘째가 성장 저PER의 개념이다                             |
|. 단순 저PER는 이미 발표된 실적을 토대로 하여 나타난 지표이고 여기서|
|  언급하고자 하는 것은 바로 성장 저PER의 개념이다                   |
|. 성장 저PER주에는 과거보다는 현재. 현재보다는 미래에 기업의 영업력 |
|  이 활성화되고 매출이 증가하는 기본적인 토대위에 이익의 증가 가능성|
|  이 높은 업체들이 이에 해당한다                                    |
|. 즉 국내주식시장이 개방됨에 따라 해외자금의 유입이 기대되고 그들의 |
|  주식 매입기준등을 생각하지 않을 수 없는 상황에서 성장 저PER의 개념|
|  다시말해서 '실적호전' 의 의미는 곧 주가상승의 가능성을 가장 높게  |
|  알려주는 신호이며 상대적으로 주가수준이 낮은 종목군일때 수익율 또 |
|  한 다른 종목에 비해 기대되는 바가 크다고 하겠다                   |
|. 결국 향후 주식시장에서 주가상승을 위해 가장 크게 기여하는 재료는  |
|  '실적호전' 과 관련된 사항들임을 강조해 두고 싶다                  |
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|        * * *        다른사람 중심으로 생각하라        * * *        |
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|.주식투자시 유의할 점중에 하나는 자기중심으로 생각지 말고 다른 사람 |
| 중심으로 생각하라는 것이다.예를들어 어떤 주식을 16.000원에 샀는데  |
| 20.000원까지는 갈것이라고 생각하고 있다면 남도 그 정도선까지 보고  |
| 있는것이다.그렇다면 그 주식은 20.000원 보다 낮은가격 근처에서 매도 |
| 물량이 나와서 그이전에 가격은 하락하게 될것이다.이러한 기본적인 생 |
| 각도 못하고 20.000원까지 갈테니까 그 가격에 가서 팔겠다고 하면 남들|
| 은 가만히 앉아서 당하고만 있으라는 애기밖에는 안된다.              |
|                                                                    |
|.주식시장은 그야말로 세상에 똑똑하다고 하는 사람들의 격전장이다.그렇|
| 게 어리숙하게 판단한다면 오히려 자기만이 남에게 당하게 되는 것이다.|
| 이와같은 상황은 주식자를 해 본 사람이면 누구나 겪을 법한 일로써 특 |
| 히 너무 심한 욕심을 부리는 사람일수록 조금 더 투자이익을 남기고자  |
| 했다가 오히려 손해를 보고 팔지 않으면 안 되는 경우도 당하게 되는 것|
| 이다.주식투자는 혼자만의 싸움이 아니며 결코 만만히 볼 수 없는 무한 |
| 한 상대자들을 상대로 하는 것이다.적을 알아야 싸움에 이길수 있는 것 |
| 처럼 상대방의 투자심리를 꿰뚫어야만 그보다 한 발 앞선 투자기법을 구|
| 사할 수 있는것이다.그러기 위해서는 자기중심의 생각이나 판단보다는  |
| 상대방 중심의 투자판단을 하도록 해야 하며 절대적인 평가가 아닌 상대|
| 적 평가이므로 상대보다 앞선다는 으이식을 갖고 투자에 임해야 할것이 |
| 다.그러기 위해서는 우선 자기자신이 어떤 생각을 하고 있으며 왜 그러 |
| 한 판단을 하게 되었는 지를 분석하여 남도 이러한 생각을 갖고 있다면 |
| 어떻게 투자를 할것인가를 예측한다면 해답은 저절로 얻어 지는 것이다.|
|                                                                    |
|.그러나 말처럼 남들보다 먼저 행동을 한다는 것은 그렇게 쉬운 일이 아 |
| 니다.주가가 하락할 때 남들 보다 먼저 매입을 한다든가 주가가 상승할 |
| 때 먼저 매도를 한다는 것은 웬만한 주관이 서 있지 않고서는 매우 힘  |
| 든 일이다.왜냐하면 주가란 내리면 계속 내려갈 것 같고 오르면 계속 올|
| 라갈 것같이 느껴지기 때문이다.결국 그러한 어려움을 이겨내는 소수의 |
| 투자자들이 성공하는 것이라 생각된다.                               |
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