1999 주식거래의 추억 : 경험이 풍부한 어부는 조류를 안다

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| * * *   경험이 풍부한 어부는 조류를 안다.    대한투자연구회  * * * |
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|. 장기간에 걸쳐 얻어진 어부의 경험은 기상보다 조규가 고기를 잡는데  |
|  휠씬유용하다는 사실을 안다는 것이다.  이는 주식투자에 있어서도 마 |
|  찬가지이다.                                                       |
|. 수차례에 걸친 실패와 성공의 연속에서 얻어진 경험이야말로 주가 움직|
|  임의 최대지표인 것이며 어떠한 장세변화의 여건속에서도 꿋꿋이 견딜 |
|  수 있는 방패이자 창인 것이다.                                     |
|. 이들이야말로 종합주가지수에서 업종.더나아가서는 종목들까지 주가움 |
|  직임의 특성을 제대로 파악하여 장세변화에 민감하게 움직임으로써 주 |
|  식시장에 숱하게 쏟아져 나온 격언들을 잘 활용하고 있는 것이다.     |
|. 경험많은 어부가 조류의 움직임을 파악하고 어장을 찾듯이 풍부한 경험|
|  을 갖춘 투자자는 바닥권시세에서 주식시장을 찾을 것이요. 천정권시세|
|  에서는 다음 투자를 위한 준비를 위해 낚시를 떠날 것이다.           |
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|* * *             큰 바닥은 점진적으로 매수하라                * * *|
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|. 어느누구도 행운없이 주식을 최고 밑바닥 수준에서 매수한다는 확신을 |
|  갖는 자는 없을 것이다. 주가가 바닥 근처에 접근하면 설사 좀더 하락 |
|  할 가능성이 존재하더라도 점진적으로 매수해 들어가는 것이 타당성이 |
|  있다.                                                             |
|. 시세는 수시로 변하는 것이기 때문에 아무리 발빠른 전문투자가라 하더|
|  라도 완전한 바닥에서 전보유 금액을 투입하여 살수는 없다. 결국 이러|
|  한 완벽성이 없는 것이 주식시장이기 때문에 각종 루머는 물론 과학적 |
|  인 투자기법들이 소개되고 있는 것이다.                             |
|. 또한 천정권이라고 판단될때는 보유주식 전부를 팔려고 하지 말고 조금|
|  씩 점진적으로 팔면서 올라가야 한다.                               |
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|              * * *   투자결과를 분석하라   * * *                   |
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|. 주식을 처음 시작하려는 사람은 종목 선택에 많은 어려움을 겪게 된다.|
|  그렇다고 매번 남에게 물어서 투자해 버리면 자기 나름대로의 투자기법|
|  을 완성시킬 수가 없는 것이다.                                     |
|. 투자에 성공하기 위해서는 자기 나름대로의 판단기준을 갖고 있어야 하|
|  며 그러기 위해서는 많은 주식투자에 대한 지식이 요구된다. 또한 정보|
|  할용을 잘하여 투자에 임해야 하는데 일반투자자들은 전문투자자에 비 |
|  해 확실한 정보의 입수가 거의 불가능하므로 어려움을 겪게 된다.     |
|. 따라서 몇 군데 정보라인망을 갖고 있으면 투자에 도움을 얻을 수 있다|
|  그러나 그 정보망의 신빙성이 높아야 하며 보다 중요한 것이 스스로 그|
|  정보에 대해 판단할 줄 아는 능력인 것이다.                         |
|. 주식투자를 오랫동안 했다고 해서 저절로 판단 능력이 비례하여 증가되|
|  는 것은 아니다. 보다 체계적으로 기법을 익힌 사람은 기초가 튼튼하여|
|  시세의 흐름이나 새로운 지식에 대해 소화능력이 뒤따르지만 귀동냥식 |
|  으로 주어들어서 투자하는 사람은 발전단계가 정해져 있다.           |
|. 어차피 투자를 한다면 투자이익을 올리기 위한 투자를 왜 망설이고 있 |
|  는지 자기 자신을 뒤돌아 보아야 하며 끊임 없이 연구하며 실전에 임해|
|  서도결과를 분석하여 보다 성공투자 확률을 높히도록 힘써야 한다.    |
|. 알고 투자하지 않으면 얻어지는 것이 없으며 우연히 장세가 좋아 매매 |
|  이익을 올렸다고 해도 다시 한번에 물려버릴 수도 있는 것이다.       |
|. 문제는 실수한 것이 중요한 것이 아니라 그 후에 똑같은 실수를 겪지  |
|  않도록 개선점을 찾는 것이 중요한 것이다.  그렇지 않으면 똑같은 어 |
|  리석음으로 투자 손실을 보게 될 것이며 그때가서 후회해도 결과를 뒤 |
|  집어 놓을수는 없는 것이다.                                        |
|. 따라서 정보 분석능력을 키우고 항상 투자결과에 대해 분석하는 습관을|
|  들여 자가투자기법을 완성해가야 한다.                              |
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|     * * *          서둘러 사고 팔지 말자           * * *           |
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|. 주식시장은 그럴듯한 수많은 정보가 마치 유령의 휘파람처럼 투자자들 |
|  을 유혹한다.  이러한 때에서는 판단능력이 부족한 일반투자자들에 대 |
|  해 뇌동매매자라는 좋지 못한 호칭을 안겨준다.  사실 뇌동매매에 휩쓸|
|  리는 투자자들 치고 주식투자에서 성공한 예는 없고 쓰라린 경험을 수 |
|  번이나 되풀이 하다가 마침내지쳐 증권시장을 떠나게 된다.           |
|. 뇌동매매자들은 보통 서둘기 때문에 높은 가격에서 주식을 사서 손해를|
|  보고 싼값에 판다.  사고 팔기를 성급하게 서두르지 않고 기다림은 인 |
|  이다.  손해를 보완하기까지 기다리는 것도 주식투자에 있어 투자자들 |
|  갖추어야할 기본적인 요건인 것이다.                                |
|. 그러나 비젼없는 주식을 갖고 오르기를 무작정 기다리는 것은 여타 주 |
|  식을 매수함으로써 이득을 볼 수 있는 기회비용을 잃게 되므로 기다리 |
|  기 이전에 판단력이 앞서야 할 것이다.                              |
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|* * *             한두번 성공에 자만하지 마라                  * * *|
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|. 주식을 시작한 지 얼마 안되는 초심투자자 가운데 몇번 시세가 적중하 |
|  고나면 주식투자를 너무 쉽게 생각하고 위험성에 대해서는 별로 관심을|
|  두지 않는다. 또한 자기가 주식을 좀 더 일찍 하지 않은것에 대해 후회|
|  하고 주식을 아직 하지 않고 생산업만 종사하는 사람들이 한심하게 까 |
|  지 보인다. 또한 마치 자기가 주식전문가가 된 것처럼 행세하고 점차  |
|  거래단위를 높이고 신용거래도 하며 심지어 남의 돈을 끌어다가 주식투|
|  자를 한다.                                                        |
|. 물론 주식투자가 재산증식의 한 방편이 되고 국민주 보급과 더불어 주 |
|  식의 대중화가 진행되고 있는 현실에 비추어 볼 때 이제 주식투자는 특|
|  수층만 하는것이 아니라 상식화되어 버리다시피 대중성을 띠게 된 것만|
|  은 사실이다. 그러나 양적팽창과 더불어 질적팽창이 뒤따르지 않음은  |
|  상당히 유감스러운 일이다. 시세의 두려움을 모르고 한두번 투자에 성 |
|  공했다고 자만심을 갖는 투자자는 결국 전형적으로 실패하는 투자자 타|
|  입인 것이다.                                                      |
|. 반면에 조그마한 성공을 계기로 용기를 갖고 더욱 조심성을 갖고 한가 |
|  지씩 주식에 대한 이해도를 높이고 겸허한 자세로 주식투자에 임하는  |
|  사람들은 성공의 디딤돌을 쌓아가고 있는 것이다.                    |
|. 주식시장은 많은 사람들이 모여서 서로 불특정 다수를 상대로 열전을  |
|  벌이고 있는곳이다. 시세란 매우 무섭고 매정하며 개인의 사정을 봐주 |
|  지 않는다. 그래서 투자를 오래해 본 사람들은 시세의 무서움을 안다. |
|. 장세가 좋아서 투자이익 좀 올렸다고 안이한 생각으로 투자하다가 그동|
|  안 번돈은 물론 자기의 원금까지 떠내려가는 장세에 잃어버리고 만다. |
|  따라서 처음 투자에 성공했다고 자만하지 말고 좀더 전문적인 지식을  |
|  습득하고 하나씩 매듭을 풀어가듯이 신중성있게 대처한다면 남들보다  |
|  높은 투자 수익률을 보장받게 될 것이다. 하지만 그렇지 않은 경우에는|
|  격국 투자에 실패하여 한숨짓는 결과를 가져올 수도 있음을 명심해야  |
|  한다.                                                             |
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|* * *              주가의 바닥시세에 나타나는 현상             * * *|
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|. 주식투자를 하는 사람이면 누구나 바닥시세에서 매입하고자 노력한다. |
|  그러나 바닥이란 쉅게 알 수 있는 것이 아니며 일반투자자들은 주가가 |
|  큰 폭으로 빠지면 바닥이라고 단정하고 매입했다가 큰 손해를 보는 경 |
|  우가 많다.  이것은 바닥이라는 것에 대한 투자자들의 근본인식이 잘못|
|  되어 있기 때문이다.  바닥시세에서 흔히 나타나는 현상을 살펴보면 장|
|  기간 주가의 하락이 계속되어 저가의 보합수준에서 더이상 하락하지 않|
|  고 호재이던 악재이던 재료가 반영되는 비율이 미미하면 거래가 거의  |
|  없어서 한산하고 신용 거래 상태도 대폭 줄어드는 현상들이 나타난다. |
|. 이런 상태가 계속되면 반발매수 세력도 없어지고 매물도 나올만큼 나  |
|  왔기 때문에 투매할 사람도 더 이상 없어진다.  따라서 주가는 움직일 |
|  줄 모르고 저가 근처에 머무르고 시장의 주도세력도 없고 시장에너지는|
|  거의 탈진된 상태가 되어 버린다.  이런상태에서 주가가 더 하락하는  |
|  경우도 있지만 이때는 거래량이 대량으로 늘어나게 되며 바닥권에서 대|
|  량의 거래가 있고 나면 과감하게 매입에 가담 할 필요가 있다.  바닥권|
|  에서 대량거래 후에는 더 이상의 매도세력이 없는 상태가 되므로 여러 |
|  조건상 상승할 가능성이 높다.                                      |
|. 그러나 바닥에서 나타나는 현상들은 각양각색이기 때문에 성급하게 판 |
|  단하고 바닥이라 단정짓는 것보다는 전형적인 바닥의 모양이 나타날 때|
|  까지 차분한 마음으로 기다릴 줄도 알아야 한다.  일반 투자자의 경우 |
|  는 너무 바닥에서 사려고 애쓰는 것보다는 분할매수 방법으로 여러번에|
|  나눠서 사는 것이 좋은 방법이다.                                   |
|. 바닥시세에 이르게 되면 신문기사에 투자자들이 데모를 한다는 기사가 |
|  나오기도 하고 증권회사 사장단들이 모임을 갖는 등 여러가지 모습을  |
|  볼 수 있다.  부양책으로 위탁증거금률을 인하하기도 하고 기관투자가 |
|  들로 하여금 매수에 가담하도록 자금지원 등을 해 주기도 한다.  모든 |
|  사람들이 시세를 보기 싫어하고 증시침체라는 단어가 신문에 오르내리 |
|  면 그때가 매수할 시점임을 잊지말고 새벽이 오기 전에가 가장 어둡다 |
|  는 말을 되새겨 볼 필요가 있다.                                    |
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|* * *              달걀은 한바구니에 담지 마라                 * * *|
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|. 한가지 종목에 집중투자 하는 것과 여러 종목에 분산 투자하는 것은 투|
|  자자들의 투자기법에 관건이 되어 오고 있는 것이다.  위험률로는 단연|
|  집중투자 하는 것이 상당히 크나 분산투자는 그 위험부담을 분산하기  |
|  때문에 안전하다 할 수 있겠다.                                     |
|. 그러나 너무 많은 종목에 분산투자할 겨우 그 관리에 어려움이 많으므 |
|  로 예를 들어 인기주에 2종목 정도  1개종목에는 자산주를 혹은 그 반 |
|  대로 단기 투자 유망종목에 1종목. 장기적인 안정성을 가진 종목에 2종|
|  목 등을 투자하는 것이 무방하리라 여겨진다.                        |
|. 아무리 확실한 정보일지라도 되도록 1종목에 모든 재력을 걸만큼의 투 |
|  기성을 가진 투자방법은 되도록 피하는 것이 좋을 것이다.            |
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|* * *        100%의 시세관은 그릇된 판단                       * * *|
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|.주식의 매매는 투자자들의 시세관이 상반될때 이루어진다. 즉 향후 장세|
| 를 비관하는 자는 매도위주의 투자전략을 구사하게 될 것이고 낙관론자 |
| 는 매수위주의 투자전략을 수렴하게 되어 결국 이들 쌍방의 매매에 의해|
| 거래가 이루어진다.  이때 필연적으로 위따르는 것이 일방은 손실을 보 |
| 게 되고 다를 일방은 이득을 보게 된다는 사실이다.                   |
|.필경 한쪽은 바보가 될것이고 다른 한쪽은 현자가 될 것이다.  주식시장|
| 은 불특정 다수인의 복잡한 시세관에 의해 희비가 엇갈리는 냉혹한 곳이|
| 며 모두들 자기 나름대로의 시세관에 상당한 의미를 부여하고 있으므로 |
| 나자신의 사고가 절대적인 것처럼 자신하는 것은 잘못된것이 아닐수 없 |
| 다.                                                                |
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|* * *                  운이 따를때  도전하라                   * * *|
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|. 어느 일이든 운이 따르듯 주식투자 역시 운을 배제할 순 없다. 운이 따|
|  를 때는 투자할 때마다 번번히 성공적이지만 운이 좋지않을경우 웬만큼|
|  투자를 잘했다고 스스로 확신을 갖더래도 불운에 읜한 어려움을 맞는  |
|  경우가 부지기수다.                                                |
|. 그러므로 지각있는 투자자라면 운이 따르지 않을 경우 쉬면서 멀리서  |
|  주식시장을 돌이켜 보는 자세가 필요하며 설사 운이 좋아 주식이 잘되 |
|  는 것을 자기의 능력으로 착각하여 주변여건을 무시한 채 적극적인 투 |
|  자자세를 취해서는 곤란하다.                                       |
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|            * * *      영원한 승자는 없다      * * *                |
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|.주식시장은 수많은 변수들에 의해 희비가 엇갈리는 냉혹한 곳이다.투자 |
| 자들이 인간인이상 이들 변수들을 완전히 파악하여 100%의 투자수익을  |
| 얻는다는 것은 있을 수 없다.                                        |
|.단지 주가는 엄정한 싸이클을 그리면서 등락을 거듭하여 그러한 리듬을 |
| 잘타는 자는 성공적인 투자를 할수 있으리라.그러나 리듬 자체도 일정한|
| 것은 아니기 때문에 이전까지 잘 해오다가도 갑자기 그 리듬이 바뀌게  |
| 될때는 다음 투자에도 오류를 범하게 된다.따라서 주식시장에서 완전한 |
| 전문가란 있을 수 없으므로 어느정도 자신을 갖는다고 해서 자만한다는 |
| 것은 큰 실패의 원인이리라.                                         |
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|* * *                 재료보다는 수급이 먼저다                 * * *|
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|. 주식투자자들은 일반적으로 재료에 우선하여 투자하는 경향이 있다. 그|
|  러나 재료란 주가형성을 위한 재료일 뿐이지 그 자체가 주가는 아니다.|
|. 주가는 주식을 사고파는 사람들의 심리에 의해서 결정되는 것이다     |
|. 재료란 결국 이러한 인간심리에 영향을 미칠뿐이며 인간심리에 의해 수|
|  요와 공급이 결정된다.                                             |
|. 주가는 이렇게 형성된 수요세력과 공급세력에 의해 자연적으로 형성되 |
|  어지는 것이다                                                     |
|. 수요측이 공급측보다 크면 주가는 오르기 마련이고 반대의 경우가 되면|
|  주가는 내려가게 된다                                              |
|. 결국 주가예측은 수급관계에 대한 예측이 되어야 하며 일반 투자자자의|
|  경우는 재료만 갖고 장세를 예측하기 때문에 빗나가는 경우가 많다    |
|. 주식의 공급물량은 유무상증자와 기업공개가 대표적인 경우이고 수요는|
|  시중의 자금사정에따라 크게 영향을 받는다                          |
|. 금융장세의 경우 재료나 기업의 재무구조와는 상관없이 풍부한 시중의 |
|  자금력에 의해 무차별 상승을 가져오는 것이다                       |
|. 그러나 강력한 호재가 나왔는데도 주가가 힘을 못쓰면 공급이 우선한  |
|  약세기조라고 볼 수 있다                                           |
|. 이러한 주가형성의 기본원리를 이해하지 못하고 주식투자를 하게 되면 |
|  성공할 확률은 당연히 줄어들 수 밖에 없다                          |
|. 모든것이 그렇듯이 항상 기본원리가 중요한 것이다. 편법이나 새로운  |
|  기법도 기본원리를 완전히 파악해야 자기것으로 만들기가 수월한 것이 |
|  다                                                                |
|. 따라서 주식투자자들은 재료에 의해서 매매종목이나 타이밍을 결정하기|
|  전에 주식의 수급상태가 어떻게 전개될 것인가에 먼저 관심을 가져야  |
|  할 것이다                                                         |
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