20181220 경제뉴스

20181220 경제뉴스

[전일 코스피]는 미국 FOMC를 앞두고 낙폭과대 종목들에대한 정책모멘텀 부각되며 반등. 코스피 0.81%상승. 코스닥 1.88%상승마감.

[유럽시장]은 이탈리아와 EU가 예산안 문제를 두고 합의소식에 상승. 독일 0.24%상승. 프랑스 0.49%상승마감.

[미국시장]은 상승출발했으나 연준(미국 중앙은행격)이 올들어 네번째 금리인상을 단행하자 급락전환 마감. 다우 1.5%하락. 나스닥 2.2%하락마감.

*이번주 가장 큰 이벤트였던 미국 FOMC 통화정책회의에서 결국 금리인상이 결정되었습니다(0.25%인상) 발표 직전까지 트럼프 대통령이 금리인상에 대한 불만을 피력했지만 미리 예고된 바가 바뀌지는 않았습니다. 다만 19년 금리인상계획을 3차례에서 2차례 조정하며 시장에 충격을 최소화하려는 모습이었습니다.

*미국증시가 급락한 것은 금리인상 자체에 있다기보다는 내년에 경기가 둔화될 수 있다는 우려때문인 것으로 보입니다. 즉, 약세장에서 악재에 더 민감하게 반응하게 되는 심리 때문인 것으로 사료됩니다. 미국증시 내에서 전업종이 하락했고 반도체 업종이 가장 큰 폭으로 하락했습니다(-4%대)

*오늘 우리증시는 조정이 예상됩니다. 특히 미국 FOMC회의에서 성장율 전망을 하향 조정한 점이 경기둔화 우려를 더욱 자극할 것으로 보입니다. 다만 현 상황은 미중 무역분쟁이 장기화되면서 실물경제 위축이 확인되고 있는 것인데.. 역으로 경기하강 속도가 빠를 수록 무역협상 속도와 미국과 중국의 부양책도 빨라질 가능성이 높습니다. 즉, 내년 상반기는 시기적으로 큰 반전이 이루어질 여건이 만들어지고 있는 것도 유념하면서 현재 구간을 잘 버텨야될 것 같습니다.

Tin tức kinh tế 20181220.

[KOSPI ngày hôm qua] đã hồi phục với động lực chính sách đối với các cổ phiếu bị bán quá mức trước FOMC của Hoa Kỳ. KOSPI tăng 0,81%. KOSDAQ tăng 1,88%.

[Thị trường châu Âu], Ý và EU tăng thỏa thuận về vấn đề ngân sách. Đức tăng 0,24%. Pháp tăng 0,49%.

[Thị trường Mỹ] bắt đầu tăng, nhưng sau Cục Dự trữ Liên bang (ngân hàng trung ương Hoa Kỳ) Chỉ số giảm 1,5%. Nasdaq giảm 2,2%.

* Tỷ lệ tại cuộc họp chính sách tiền tệ của FOMC, sự kiện lớn nhất trong tuần này, cuối cùng đã được quyết định (tăng 0,25%). Tổng thống Trump đã thất vọng với việc tăng lãi suất cho đến khi công bố, nhưng dự báo không thay đổi. Tuy nhiên, chúng tôi đã cố gắng giảm thiểu tác động đến thị trường bằng cách điều chỉnh kế hoạch tăng lãi suất 19 năm ba lần thành hai lần.

* Sự sụt giảm mạnh của thị trường chứng khoán Mỹ dường như là do mối lo ngại rằng nền kinh tế có thể chậm lại trong năm tới thay vì tăng lãi suất. Nói cách khác, nó dường như được gây ra bởi tâm lý phản ứng nhạy cảm hơn với tin xấu trong thị trường gấu. Trong thị trường chứng khoán Mỹ, tất cả các ngành công nghiệp đều giảm và ngành công nghiệp bán dẫn là mức giảm lớn nhất (-4%).

* Thị trường chứng khoán của chúng tôi dự kiến ​​sẽ được điều chỉnh ngày hôm nay. Cụ thể, việc điều chỉnh giảm dự báo tốc độ tăng trưởng tại cuộc họp FOMC ở Mỹ dự kiến ​​sẽ kích thích hơn nữa mối lo ngại về suy thoái kinh tế. Tuy nhiên, tình hình hiện nay là suy thoái kinh tế thực sự đã được xác nhận khi tranh chấp thương mại Mỹ-Trung kéo dài. Ngược lại, suy thoái kinh tế càng nhanh, các cuộc đàm phán thương mại và các gói kích thích của Mỹ và Trung Quốc càng có khả năng tăng tốc. Nói cách khác, cần phải giữ cho phần hiện tại tốt, hãy nhớ rằng có một tình huống trong đó một sự đảo ngược lớn sẽ được thực hiện trong nửa đầu năm tới.

20181220 ข่าวเศรษฐกิจ

[วานนี้ KOSPI] ฟื้นตัวขึ้นพร้อมกับแรงกดดันทางด้านนโยบายสำหรับหุ้นรอซื้อคืนล่วงหน้าก่อน FOMC ของสหรัฐ KOSPI เพิ่มขึ้น 0.81% KOSDAQ ปรับตัวเพิ่มขึ้น 1.88%

[ตลาดยุโรป], อิตาลีและสหภาพยุโรปเพิ่มขึ้นในข้อตกลงเกี่ยวกับปัญหางบประมาณ เยอรมนีเพิ่มขึ้น 0.24% ฝรั่งเศสเพิ่มขึ้น 0.49%

[ตลาดสหรัฐ] เริ่มขึ้น แต่หลังจากที่ธนาคารกลางสหรัฐฯ (Federal Reserve) Dow ลดลง 1.5% Nasdaq ลดลง 2.2%

* อัตราดอกเบี้ยที่การประชุมนโยบายการเงินของ FOMC ซึ่งเป็นเหตุการณ์ที่ใหญ่ที่สุดในสัปดาห์นี้ได้รับการตัดสินในที่สุด (เพิ่มขึ้น 0.25%) ประธาน Trump รู้สึกผิดหวังกับการปรับขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ยจนกว่าจะมีการแถลง แต่คาดว่าจะไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง อย่างไรก็ตามเราพยายามที่จะลดผลกระทบในตลาดโดยปรับแผนปรับขึ้นอัตรา 19 ปีสามครั้งถึงสองเท่า

* การลดลงอย่างรวดเร็วของตลาดหุ้นสหรัฐฯน่าจะเป็นเพราะความกังวลว่าเศรษฐกิจอาจจะชะลอตัวลงในปีหน้ามากกว่าการปรับขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ย กล่าวอีกนัยหนึ่งดูเหมือนว่าจะเกิดจากจิตวิทยาที่ตอบสนองต่อข่าวร้ายในตลาดหมีมากขึ้น หุ้นอุตสาหกรรมทั้งหมดลดลงและอุตสาหกรรมเซมิคอนดักเตอร์ลดลงมากที่สุด (-4%)

* คาดว่าตลาดสต็อกของเราจะปรับตัวในวันนี้ โดยเฉพาะอย่างยิ่งการปรับลดอัตราการเติบโตของการคาดการณ์อัตราการเติบโตในที่ประชุม FOMC ในสหรัฐคาดว่าจะกระตุ้นให้เกิดความวิตกกังวลต่อภาวะเศรษฐกิจชะลอตัว อย่างไรก็ตามสถานการณ์ปัจจุบันคือภาวะถดถอยทางเศรษฐกิจที่แท้จริงได้รับการยืนยันเนื่องจากข้อพิพาททางการค้าระหว่างสหรัฐฯและจีนมีการยืดเยื้อในทางตรงกันข้ามการชะลอตัวทางเศรษฐกิจจะทำให้การเจรจาทางการค้าและมาตรการกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจของสหรัฐฯและจีนมีความเป็นไปได้เร็วขึ้น กล่าวอีกนัยหนึ่งก็คือจำเป็นที่จะต้องรักษาส่วนที่เป็นปัจจุบันอยู่เสมอโดยคำนึงถึงสถานการณ์ที่มีการกลับรายการขนาดใหญ่ในช่วงครึ่งแรกของปีหน้า

20181220 Economic News.

[Yesterday's KOSPI] rebounded with policy momentum for oversold stocks ahead of the US FOMC. KOSPI increased by 0.81%. The KOSDAQ rose 1.88%.

[European market], Italy and the EU rise in agreement on the budget issue. Germany rose 0.24%. France climbed 0.49%.

[US market] started to rise, but after the Federal Reserve (US central bank) Dow fell 1.5%. The Nasdaq fell 2.2%.

* The rate at the FOMC monetary policy meeting, which was the biggest event this week, was finally decided (0.25% increase). President Trump was disappointed with the rate hike until the announcement, but the forecast was not changed. However, we were trying to minimize the impact on the market by adjusting the 19-year rate hike plan three times to two times.

* The sharp decline of the US stock market seems to be due to the concern that the economy may slow down next year rather than the interest rate hike itself. In other words, it seems to be caused by the psychology that responds more sensitively to bad news in the bear market. In the US stock market, all industries were down and the semiconductor industry was the biggest drop (-4%).

* Our stock market is expected to be adjusted today. In particular, the downward revision of the growth rate forecast at the FOMC meeting in the US is expected to further stimulate concerns over the economic slowdown. However, the current situation is that the real economic recession has been confirmed as the US-China trade dispute is prolonged. In contrast, the faster the economic downturn, the faster the trade negotiations and the stimulus packages of the US and China are likely to accelerate. In other words, it is necessary to keep the current section well, keeping in mind that there is a situation in which a large reversal will be made in the first half of next year.