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미래연구 관련 리포트 목록 151-200 : 과학기술정책연구원

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미래연구 관련 리포트 목록 151-200 : 과학기술정책연구원

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151 Global Environmental Change and human Security <p>We trace the evolution of recent thinking about the relationship between people, the environment, and security. We introduce the three key themes that are the concern of this book. First, we explain the transition from concerns about security to concerns about human security, which is a move that deepens and broadens both security studies and development studies. Human security intersects with the issue of environmental change to create new sets of issues concerning sustainable development (albeit issues that have been raised earlier to some extent by ‘‘Global Ecology’’ thinkers [Sachs 1993]). We then introduce the literature that links environmental change with human security and violent conflict. Finally, we explain the ways in which global environmental change poses risks to human security, and we discuss the implications of exploring global environmental change with a human security discourse. We also present the Global Environmental Change and Human Security (GECHS) project’s definition of human security, and we discuss how a human security orientation to environmental&nbsp;change can contribute to initiatives such as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).</p> MIT Richard A. Matthew, Jon Barnett, BryanMcDonald, and Karen L. O’Brien
152 GLOBAL GREEN GROWTH: Clean Energy Industrial Investments and Expanding Job Opportunities Volume I <p>This report focuses on measures to reduce CO2 emissions from energy-based sources. Expressed</p>
<p>on a per capita basis, global CO2 emissions in 2010 averaged 4.6 metric tons (mt). We</p>
<p>can express our intermediate emissions reduction goals in terms of this measure, within the</p>
<p>framework of reducing the absolute level of carbon emissions by 40 percent, to around 20,000</p>
<p>mmt, within 20 years. With global population expected to rise to about 8.4 billion by 2030, this</p>
<p>means that carbon emissions will need to be at no more than 2.4 mt per capita within 20 years.</p>
United Nations Industrial Development Organization The Global Green Growth Institute
153 GLOBAL GREEN GROWTH: Clean Energy Industrial Investments and Expanding Job Opportunities Volume II <p>This report, Volume II of the joint research project “Global Green Growth: Clean Energy</p>
<p>Industrial Investments and Expanding Job Opportunities”, examines the policy framework in</p>
<p>place in a selected group of countries, specifically Brazil, Germany, Indonesia, the Republic of</p>
<p>Korea (the ROK) and South Africa, for promoting green industrial growth through clean energy</p>
<p>investments, and investigates the potential for employment creation of such investments.</p>
United Nations Industrial Development Organization Global Green Growth Institute
154 Global Health and Economic Impacts of Future Ozone Pollution <p>We assess the human health and economic impacts of projected 2000-2050 changes in ozone pollution using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis-Health Effects (EPPA-HE) model, in combination with results from the GEOS-Chem global tropospheric chemistry model that simulated climate and chemistry effects of IPCC SRES emissions. We use EPPA to assess the human health damages (including acute mortality and morbidity outcomes) caused by ozone pollution and quantify their economic impacts in sixteen world regions. We compare the costs of ozone pollution under scenarios with 2000 and 2050 ozone precursor and greenhouse gas emissions (SRES A1B scenario). We estimate that health costs due to global ozone pollution above pre-industrial levels by 2050 will be $580 billion (year 2000$) and that acute mortalities will exceed 2 million. &nbsp;We find that previous methodologies underestimate costs of air pollution by more than a third because they do not take into account the long-term, compounding effects of health costs. The economic effects of emissions changes far exceed the influence of climate alone.&nbsp;</p> MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Noelle E. Selin*, Shiliang Wu†, Kyung-Min Nam‡, John M. Reilly*, Sergey Paltsev*, Ronald G. Prinn* and Mort D. Webster
155 Global Trends 2025 <p>&nbsp;We prepared Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World to stimulate strategic thinking about the future by identifying key trends, the factors that drive them, where they seem to be headed, and how they might interact. It uses scenarios to illustrate some of the many ways in which the drivers examined in the study (e.g., globalization, demography, the rise of new powers, the decay of international institutions, climate<br />change, and the geopolitics of energy) may interact to generate challenges and opportunities for future decisionmakers. The study as a whole is more a description of the factors likely to shape events than a prediction of what will actually happen.</p> National Intelligence Council National Intelligence Council
156 Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds <p>Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds is the fifth installment in the National Intelligence Council’s series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. As with previous editions, we hope that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities. We distinguish between megatrends, those factors that will likely occur under any scenario, and game-changers, critical variables whose trajectories are far less certain. Finally, as our appreciation of the diversity and complexity of various factors has grown, we have increased our attention to scenarios or alternative worlds we might face.</p> National Intelligence Council National Intelligence Council
157 GLOBAL TRENDS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT 2016 <p>Renewable energy set new records in 2015 for dollar investment, the amount of new capacity added and the relative importance of developing countries in that growth. All this happened in a year in which prices of fossil fuel commodities ? oil, coal and gas ? plummeted, causing distress to many companies involved in the hydrocarbon sector. So far, the drivers of investment in renewables, including climate change policies and improving cost-competitiveness, have been more than sufficient to enable renewables to keep growing their share of world electricity generation at the expense of carbon-emitting sources.</p> Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre Angus McCrone 외 다수
158 GREEN ECONOMY IN ACTION: Articles and Excerpts that Illustrate Green Economy and Sustainable Development Efforts <p>The concept of Green Economy is not entirely a new concept. It was first mooted by the London Environmental Economics Centre1 (LEEC) in a publication (Blueprint for a Sustainable Economy) in 1989 authored by David Pearce, Anil Markandya, and Ed Barbier. However, at that time the concept did not receive wide acceptance. With the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2007 and the failure of most countries to move onto a sustainable development path, it has become evidently clear that the current development paradigm is not yielding the desired outcomes on all fronts economic, social, and environmental.</p> UNDP Hussein Abaza 외 다수
159 Green Growth and Developing Countries <p>The concept of “green growth” offers real opportunities for more inclusive growth in developing</p>
<p>countries while protecting the environment. However, the concept is generating a great diversity of</p>
<p>political positions, from enthusiastic to cautious, reflecting a lack of clarity and experience, and the</p>
<p>different opportunities available to specific countries. This report responds to these concerns and</p>
<p>acknowledges that developing countries face particular challenges in designing and implementing green</p>
<p>growth strategies.</p>
OECD OECD
160 Green Transformation of Small Businesses <p>This report aims to help environmental and other competent authorities in OECD countries to promote green business practices among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). It analyses different ways to establish environmental regulatory requirements for facilities with low environmental risk (most of which are SMEs). It also examines how to design and apply information and market-based tools to promote compliance with such requirements and adoption of cleaner technologies and good environmental management practices. The report suggests several ways to increase the effectiveness of these promotion tools with respect to the SME community. The report addresses the roles of environmental authorities, local governments, business organisations and financial institutions in the greening of small businesses. It reviews in detail the experience of France, Ireland, Korea, the Netherlands and the UK (England and Wales and Scotland) and draws on examples of several other countries.&nbsp;</p> OECD Eugene Mazur
161 Growing a better future: food justice in a resource-constrained world <p>2008 marked the start of the new era of crisis. LehmanBrothers collapsed, oil reached $147 a barrel, and foodprices leapt, precipitating protests in 61 countries, withriots or violent protests in 23.5 By 2009, the number ofhungry people passed one billion for the first time.6Rich-country governments responded with hypocrisy,professing alarm while continuing to throw billions ofdollars of taxpayers’ money at their bloated biofuelindustries, diverting food from mouths to petrol tanks.In a vacuum of trust, governments one after another imposed export bans, pushing up prices further.</p> OXFAM Robert Bailey
162 Growing, Fast and Slow <p class=0 style=line-height:120%;background:#ffffff;mso-pagination:none;text-autospace:none;mso-padding-alt:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;><span style=font-family: Arial; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;>Today’s policy debates bear testimony to that. Since the financial crisis, global growth has under-performed. In the decade prior to it, advanced economy growth averaged 3% per year. In the period since, it has averaged just 1%. The world has grown fast, then slow. That has led some to fear “secular stagnation” </span><span style=font-family: Arial; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;>? </span><span style=font-family: Arial; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;>a lengthy period of sub-par growth.&nbsp;The self-same concerns were voiced at the time of the Great Depression in the 1930s</span></p> bank of england Andrew G Haldane
163 Handbook on Siting Renewable Energy Projects While Addressing Environmental Issues <p>This Handbook is intended for EPA, other federal, local, and state cleanup project managers; communities, property owners, developers, and others with an interest in reusing potentially contaminated sites for renewable energy production. This Handbook provides tools to help interested parties determine the overall feasibility of siting renewable energy production and some key considerations for integrating renewable energy development during all phases of typical cleanup processes (e.g., during the environmental assessment, cleanup plan, or cleanup implementation) in the EPA Superfund, Brownfields, and Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Corrective Action programs.&nbsp;</p> EPA EPA
164 Harmonising Climate Risk Management <p><span style=color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial, verdana, sans-serif; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);>Development planners and project managers have used a wide variety of tools to manage a broad range of environmental risks, including those posed by climate variability, for a long time. Some of these tools have also now been modified to take into account the risks posed by climate change. At the same time, there has been a recent emphasis in developing more dedicated tools which have an explicit focus on screening for climate change risks and for facilitating adaptation. The purpose of this paper is to analyse this latter set of tools targeted to screen climate change risks. The paper focuses on the need to consider the experiences of users as well as developers, and to investigate the extent to which tools are meeting user needs and if opportunities may exist for streamlining the tools landscape. This analysis is therefore an effort to contribute to the alignment and harmonisation priorities of the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness of March 2005 and the follow-up Accra Agenda for Action of September 2008. While a one-size-fits-all approach or methodology may not be appropriate, there may be opportunities to provide common guidance on specific topics, such as categorisation and risk management frameworks, and to clarify the diverse terminology. In an effort to improve the use of screening and assessment tools, the paper recommends that the development community increase partner country ownership of risk screening and assessment tools/processes, narrow the gap between process guidance tools and data and information provision tools, supply guidance for users in moving from analysis to action and collaborate to prepare harmonised guidelines. While this analysis is limited to tools which have an explicit focus on climate change and adaptation, future work should also consider existing risk analysis tools which are practically used in development planning and modified for applications to adaptation.</span></p> OECD Anne Hammill, Thomas Tanner
165 Healthcare delivery of the?future: How digital technology can bridge time and distance between clinicians and consumers <p>Twenty-five years ago, after doctors and nurses collected patient data, it was more often than not left buried in archaic, paper-based filing systems, only to resurface if triggered by memory. Just as the banking and retail, one of the biggest developments in healthcare during the last quarter century has been the remarkable progress made in capturing patient, clinical, research, administrative, and cost data.&nbsp;</p>
<p>In short order, entrepreneurs have devised technologies aimed at increasing access, improving quality, and lowering cost?starting with e-prescribing to reduce medical errors and basic standards for sharing data to improve communication among caregivers often located in different settings.&nbsp;</p>
<p>In 2009, the federal government put money behind the drive to go paperless, handing out more than $25 billion in incentives for adopting electronic health records (EHRs).1 Now 400,000 eligible providers who have attested to the “meaningful use” of their EHRs are generating reams of clinical and cost data.2&nbsp;</p>
<p>Industry leaders followed, devising new ways to connect patients and caregivers via secure websites,&nbsp;</p>
<p>telehealth, remote monitoring, and mobile health apps?removing the barriers of time and distance, and bringing a traditionally fragmented industry closer together.&nbsp;</p>
<p>A few health systems are using advanced analytics to translate large amounts of data about a patient’s condition and behavior to actually anticipate the need for interventions and revise care plans.</p>
<p>Today the health sector faces a daunting new digital challenge: unleashing the power of technology to fundamentally reinvent how care is delivered. Healthcare companies should connect their old systems with new digital technologies and merge the data locked inside them to generate meaningful, actionable insights for caregivers.&nbsp;</p>
<p>In the New Health Economy, digitallyenabled care is no longer a niceto-have, but rather a fundamental business imperative. Industry leaders across health plans, hospitals and the pharmaceutical industry all see major shifts in how care is being delivered. Digital technology bridges time, distance and the expectation gap between consumers and clinicians.</p>
<p>PwC’s Health Research Institute (HRI) surveyed 1,000 physicians and physician “extenders” (e.g.,&nbsp;</p>
<p>nurse practitioners and physician’s assistants) and found that caregivers share similar views with consumers on the promise of digital technology to:</p>
<p>? Help caregivers work more as a team: Nearly half of consumers and 79% of physicians believe the use of mobile devices can help clinicians better coordinate care. ? Increase patient-clinician interaction: Half of physicians said that digital visits, or e-visits, could replace more than 10% of in-office patient visits, while nearly as many consumers said that they would be willing to communicate with their caregivers online. ? Put diagnostic testing of basic conditions into the hands of patients: About 42% of physicians are at least somewhat comfortable relying on at-home test results to prescribe medication.3 ? Promote self-management of chronic disease using health apps: Twenty-eight percent of consumers said they have a healthcare, wellness, or medical app on their mobile device, up from 16% last year. Roughly two-thirds of physicians said they would be willing to prescribe an app to help patients manage a chronic disease such as diabetes.</p>
<p>How healthcare executives envision care&nbsp;</p>
PWC ; Health Research Institute PWC ; Health Research Institute
166 Healthcare delivery of the future: How digital technology can bridge time and distance between clinicians and consumers <p>Twenty-five years ago, after doctors&nbsp;and nurses collected patient data, it&nbsp;was more often than not left buried in&nbsp;archaic, paper-based filing systems,&nbsp;only to resurface if triggered by&nbsp;memory. Just as the banking and</p>
<p>retail, one of the biggest developments&nbsp;in healthcare during the last quarter&nbsp;century has been the remarkable</p>
<p>progress made in capturing patient,&nbsp;clinical, research, administrative, and&nbsp;cost data.</p>
PWC Health Research Institute Daniel Garret 외 다수
167 Higher Education to 2030VOLUME 2 <p>&nbsp;Higher Education to 2030: Globalisation, the second in a four-volume series, addresses these issues both from a quantitative and a qualitative standpoint. Increased global competition in higher education, simultaneous to cross-border collaboration is illustrated not only on a global scale, but also at a regional level through developments in Europe. Though the emphasis is on the OECD area, the reflections have a worldwide scope with particular emphasis on the potential of China and India. The book explores significant trends in higher education provision, financing and governance, including a specific focus on the future role of market forces, mobility, and quality assurance in higher education.<span id=xquared_temp></span></p> OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation
168 Historic and Future SO2 Emissions Analysis - 9 State Western Region <p>The Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) Market Trading Forum has worked diligently to advance discussions and reach consensus on the regional sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission milestones and basic elements of backstop cap-and-trade program designed to assure that regional milestones are achieved. These components of the regional haze program need to be submitted to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in October 2000 by the WRAP, and will form the basis of regional haze and State and tribal implementation plan submittals by States and tribes wishing to comply with the requirements of the regional haze rule. This paper examines the historic (1990 to 1998) SO2 emissions from non-utility point sources in the western region. The study area is comprised of the following States: Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. The historic emissions analysis focuses on the sources with an SO2&nbsp;emissions change of 250 tons per year or more, between 1990 and 1998, which were investigated to determine the primary reasons for this emissions change. The second part of the analysis performed for this study is an SO2 emissions projection. Using 1998 as a baseline, SO2 emission projections were made to 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018. These emission projections were made using growth factors, retirement rates, and new source control factors from the Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission Integrated Assessment System. This paper provides examples of the types of regional cooperation on emission inventory development and application in a policy analysis framework that is a forerunner of the types of planning and execution that will need to take place in future years for regional haze planning and modeling.</p> The Western Regional Air Partnership James H. Wilson Jr., Manish Salhotra, Erica J. Laich
169 How a new generation of robots is transforming manufacturing <p>Industrial robots are on the verge of revolutionizing manufacturing. As they become smarter, faster and cheaper, they’re being called upon to do more?well beyond traditional repetitive, onerous or even dangerous tasks such as welding and materials handling. They’re taking on more “human” capabilities and traits such as sensing, dexterity, memory, trainability, and object recognition. As a result, they’re taking on more jobs?such as picking and packaging, testing or inspecting products, or assembling minute electronics. In addition, a new generation of &nbsp;“collaborative” robots ushers in an era shepherding robots out of their cages and literally hand-inhand with human workers who train them through physical demonstration. As costs of advanced robotics continue to fall (from several hundreds of thousands of dollars now to tens of thousands) and applications widen, industries beyond automotive? such as food and beverage?are adding them to their ranks. One major robotics company refers to its new-generation robot as an “intelligent industrial work assistant.”</p>
<p>Presently, there are estimated 1.5 million robots toiling away globally, with about 230,000 in the US alone. Global shipments hit about 180,000 in 2013, an all-time high, with 200,000 forecasted for 2014, estimates the International Federation of Robots (IFR).1,2 Robots have also caught the eyes of investors, such as recent high-profile pure-play robotics investments by Google and Amazon. According to PwC/NVCA MoneyTree Report based on data from Thomson Reuters, US venture capital investment in robotics technology has surged in the last couple of years.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Executive summary: The R generation</p>
<p>This maturing “R generation” holds myriad implications for the future of manufacturing. Wider adoption of robots comes at a time when manufacturers?both big and small?are under increasing pressures to squeeze even greater productivity from their workforces and when wage arbitrage seems less attractive in some locales, such as China, as it was a decade ago for US manufacturers. Broader adoption of robots may even help to spur greater reshoring of manufacturing from overseas back to the US?or closer to the US market, such as in Mexico.&nbsp;</p>
<p>And, for small and medium-sized companies, a question is arising sooner than most probably expected: “Is now the time to hire some automated help?” &nbsp;That question isn’t being prompted only as a result of increased affordability. The nascent age of “nearly human” robots is driving greater efficiencies, and holds promise to reduce labor force injuries. It’s already showing signals of changing how the industrial workforce is composed?and even the very nature of industrial jobs as we now know them. Manufacturers are also finding that being competitive means injecting greater flexibility into their production in order to satisfy consumer demand for products with shorter life cycles and a greater variety of products or variants of existing products, and are tapping robots to help on this front as well.&nbsp;</p>
<p>All this opens new options, choices and paths for manufacturers. Can robots take on labor in ways that frees up and makes better use of human resources and unleashes innovation? Are there ways robots can be applied in applications that a current workforce is unable to carry out&nbsp;</p>
<p>(such as those of high precision or force) which will open new opportunities of faster and greater production of existing products?or, perhaps more important, enable altogether new product development? &nbsp;Are robots an economically viable and realistic solution to the increasing difficulty of securing a sustainable manufacturing workforce? If robots displace employees, are there plans in place to move those employees to other tasks?preferably more interesting and attractive to them and more valuable to the company?</p>
<p>To get a better grasp on how US manufacturers are enlisting robots in their production lines?and future plans?PwC carried out a survey of 120 manufacturers.3 We found that while the majority of respondents have already adopted robotics technology, there still exists real barriers for those which have yet to do so, citing limitations such as cost, the lack of perceived need, and expertise and skills needed to properly exploit them. Highlights from that survey include: ? 59% of manufacturers are currently using some sort of robotics technology ? 28% believe that replacement of workers will be the biggest impact of robots on the US manufacturing workforce in the next 3?5 years ? 35% believe the biggest impact will be the creation of new job opportunities to engineer advanced robots and robotic operating systems ? 27% listed “not having a need” as the biggest limitation for not adopting robotics in the next 3?5 years.&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
PWC PWC
170 How the Future of Surgery is Changing <p>Since the advent of minimally invasive surgery, there have been new discoveries in robotics to perform telesurgery, in virtual reality and surgical simulators for surgical education and many emerging new technologies to revolutionize what the future of surgery will become. &nbsp;This is a review of the state of the art in these related fields, of disruptive technologies in the laboratories and the long term implications of the radical new technologies that are emerging.&nbsp;</p> Richard M. Satava, MD FACS Richard M. Satava, MD FACS
171 Human Health and Global Environmental Change <p>This Update issue was first&nbsp;conceived by IHDP’s health advisory&nbsp;group at the IHDP Open Meeting in&nbsp;2009. Since then, questions about the&nbsp;links between global change, health&nbsp;and the environment have become&nbsp;more critical to human well-being. For&nbsp;example, extreme events in different&nbsp;parts of the world (e.g. H1N1A),&nbsp;made the global community aware of&nbsp;how rapidly emergent diseases can be&nbsp;widely transmitted virtually anywhere.&nbsp;While the natural science and medical&nbsp;communities have had a head start&nbsp;in drawing together the connections&nbsp;between health and the environment,&nbsp;it has become increasingly apparent&nbsp;that the IHDP community has a key&nbsp;role to play in addressing health as a&nbsp;cross-cutting issue.&nbsp;As a starting point, we invited&nbsp;a group of renowned scientists to&nbsp;contribute their thoughts and work on&nbsp;three themes: Firstly concerning areas&nbsp;of research where IHDP’s community&nbsp;could contribute at the conceptual&nbsp;level; secondly, on examples of research&nbsp;already taking place in various&nbsp;regions; and thirdly, to suggest emerging&nbsp;topics which need to be addressed.&nbsp;</p> IHDP T. Krafft et al.
172 Humanity Divided: Confronting Inequality in Developing Countries Empowered lives. Resilient nations. <p>Inequality in society is not a new phenomenon. And yet it can be fatal. If left unchecked, as demonstrated in</p>
<p>this Report, it can undermine the very foundations of development and social and domestic peace.</p>
<p>Over the last decades, the world has witnessed impressive average gains against multiple indicators of</p>
<p>material prosperity. For instance, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in low- and middle-income</p>
<p>countries has more than doubled in real terms since 1990.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
UNDP Selim Jahan 외 다수
173 IBSA-past? BRICS-future? <p>&nbsp;The political results are evident in the joint positions that are expressed in the declarations of Heads of State and Government and Ministerial communiqu?s. Although the countries do not agree on everything, they agree on many things. Co-ordination is most evident at the UN, where there is a 96% vote convergence among IBSA countries and the reform of global institutions, especially the Security Council. IBSA countries lobbied for the reform of the UN to provide a stronger role to the developing countries, which comprise the majority of the world.</p> Russian Academy of Sciences Dr. Alexandra A.Arkhangelskaya
174 ICT & the future of food and Agriculture <p>Food and Agriculture are two industrial systems that are fundamental to human life. The structured approach to farming and food production that humans have created over centuries is one of the key factors that have defined how human civilization has developed and progressed, reducing the need for people to spend a large majority of their daily lives fulfilling calorie requirements. ICT has played a role, mostly in supply chain management but is increasingly being included in farm management and even into food development itself. Humanity now faces a choice about what sort of food system it will develop and ICT plays a critical role in that decision.</p>
<p>As a result, Food and Agriculture are some of the industries most vulnerable to digital disruption as critical thresholds are being crossed or neared. Two main sets of ICT interventions will become evident:</p>
<p>1. &nbsp;ICT solutions that allow humanity to push past natural boundaries through the:&nbsp;</p>
<p>&gt; &nbsp;Continued streamlining of the traditional industrialized supply chain through the application of sensors and the creation of more integrated business processes.&nbsp;</p>
<p>&gt; &nbsp;Creation of new forms of supply chains that augment food products through data and new technologies.</p>
<p>2. &nbsp;ICT solutions that place control of food growth and production back into local communities through the:&nbsp;</p>
<p>&gt; &nbsp;Creation of reliable, secure, robust and economically sustainable “short” supply chains. These short supply chains allow the re-territorialization of parts of the food system into local areas.</p>
<p>This second group of ICT solutions ? effectively implemented ? can fundamentally disrupt the industrial structure of several industries simultaneously by redistributing productive elements of the economy across regions, nations and even the globe.</p>
<p>This report outlines both of these types of technologies and how they will become increasingly integrated into the overall food system.</p>
<p><br /></p>
ERICSSON ERICSSON
175 ICT & the future of transport <p>Transport is a fundamental part of every nation’s economy, allowing people to travel to and from work, and ensuring that goods and services are effectively delivered. Since the early 1960s, the transport infrastructures of many nations in the world have been formulated around personal vehicles and expanding road infrastructures. This has often come at the expense &nbsp;of public transport services such as railways, and &nbsp;severely congested roads have been the result.&nbsp;</p>
<p>At the same time, rising relative prosperity and a variety of new service models in air travel have meant that people are often travelling more, and over longer distances. Transport and Logistics are now responsible for up to 40% of air pollution, and regulation is being implemented to reduce transport’s impact on CO2, NOx and other emissions. The transport infrastructures of many nations are now coming under significant and multiple pressures due to urbanization, rising global populations and environmental challenges. The manner in which transportation is ‘delivered’ needs to be transformed.</p>
<p>ICT plays both a fundamental and a transformative role in the industry today. In fact, the use of technology may be as effective as doubling or tripling the physical road capacity in some cities. Digital technologies, from modern control systems to sensor technologies, can create more capacity without requiring additional physical infrastructure. In a situation where more and more land in cities is lost to road building and other types of transport infrastructure, this can avoid major costs associated with building new infrastructure.</p>
<p>ICT has a critical role to play in facing these challenges and, with proper implementation, may help to significantly reduce congestion. Well-established concepts such as Intelligent Transport Systems are only one part of the ICT picture as integration between various parts of transport infrastructure becomes a competitive advantage for companies, cities and nations. &nbsp;Other examples include:</p>
<p>&gt; &nbsp;Embedded technology to create connected cars and integrate them into the transport infrastructure</p>
<p>&gt; &nbsp;Streamlined project management tools that enable better use of workforce on construction sites and dramatically reduce the costs of getting transport infrastructure up and running</p>
<p>&gt; &nbsp;Increased use of sensors and other technologies &nbsp;to enhance understanding of maintenance and wear and tear of transport infrastructure</p>
<p>In addition, ICT is already having a transformational impact on the transport industry, destroying existing relationships between actors in the value chain and creating space for new entrants. Such applications of ICT have led to the emergence of several new organizational forms, which allow for the creation of dynamic, strategic networks among individuals and small firms. As subsequent reports will illustrate, these organizational forms repeat across the emerging “Networked Society” and represent a fundamental shift in how &nbsp;our world is organized</p>
ERICSSON ERICSSON
176 IEA세계에너지전망2009 <p>본 보고서에서는 온실가스 배출을 감소시키는 대책의 도입과 실행, 그리고 셰획을 위한 분석적인 기준을 마련함으로써 기후협상에 정보를 제공하고자 함 </p> 에너지 경제 연구원,IEA 에너지 경제 연구원
177 Imagining the Digital future How digital themes are transforming companies across industries <p>The new or rather the contextual definition of digital business refers to the way in which businesses are adopting&nbsp;technology platforms for their physical assets to improve processes to connect internally and to their stakeholders&nbsp;? customers, suppliers, employees, shareholders and the public at large.</p> Ernst & Young LLP Samiron Ghoshal 외 다수
178 India Energy Outlook: End Use Demand in India to 2020 <p>&nbsp;The present report draws upon the expertise developed over many years in the Laboratory’s International Energy Studies Group in order to present as complete and detailed picture as possible of the components and trends in energy consumption in India</p> Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Environmental Energy Science & Technologynologies Division
179 Indian Biotechnology: The Roadmap to the Next Decade and Beyond <p>This report captures the emerging global and Indian scenarios in all aspects of biotechnology and recommends several policy interventions which have the potential to catalyse the transformation of the Indian biotechnology sector.</p> Association of BioTechnology Led Enterprises Satya Prakash Dash
180 Indonesia Strategic Vision for Agriculture and Rural Development <p>This publication summarizes the study’s findings and recommendations to facilitate their dissemination to broader audiences both within and outside Indonesia. The original TA report was undertaken by a team of experts led by Mark Rosegrant and Ashok Gulati of IFPRI under the guidance of Arsenio M. Balisacan of SEARCA. Muhammad Ehsan Khan led the work on this publication with support from Bobur Alimov under the guidance of M. Jamilur Rahman. The original TA report was abridged by Mary Ann Asico and Claudia Ringler and edited by Stephen Banta with the help of Jo Narciso. Urooj S. Malik, Director, Agriculture, Environment and Natural Resources Division, Southeast Asia Department, provided oversight and direction in preparing the publication.</p> Asian Development Bank Asian Development Bank
181 Industrial Biotechnology to 2030 <p>This document presents two scenarios for industrial biotechnology to 2030: a baseline and an<br />alternate scenario exploring how new forms of manufacturing may evolve and impact the future. The<br />narrative includes text boxes with thoughts on how the scenarios might have occurred and what they<br />might look like in different nations</p> OECD Elspeth MacRae et al.
182 INDUSTRIE 4.0 Smart Manufacturing for the Future <p>The world as we know and experience it today has been shaped by</p>
<p>three major technological revolutions. The first Industrial Revolution,</p>
<p>beginning in Great Britain at the tail end of the 18th century and</p>
<p>ending in the mid-19th century, represented a radical shift away</p>
<p>from an agrarian economy to one defined by the introduction of</p>
<p>mechanical production methods.</p>
Germany Trade & Invest William MacDougall
183 Industrie 4.0: Mastering the Transition” 10 Key Recommendations for a European Framework for the Successful Digital Transition in Industry <p>Industry in Europe is facing a historic turning point. Digital technologies are unlocking huge opportunities for companies to achieve an entirely new level of quality, efficiency and customisation. In Industrie 4.0, people, machines and products communicate with one another via the Internet. This not only increases the competitiveness of existing industries such as automotive, steel, chemicals, textiles and agriculture, but also enables totally new business models for medium-sized companies and start-ups. Taking a leap into the digital age is an opportunity to keep the manufacturing industry and the jobs it provides in Europe for the long term.</p> VDMA European Office Kai Peters
184 industry 4.0 <p>This report presents the findings of an analytical study on ‘Industry 4.0’ carried out by</p>
<p>CSES for the European Parliament. The study aims to inform the debate about the role of</p>
<p>industrial policy at an EU level in supporting Member States (MS) and enterprises as</p>
<p>regards the transformation required to connect digital technologies with industrial products</p>
<p>and services.</p>
EU Jan SMIT, Stephan KREUTZER, Carolin MOELLER, Malin CARLBERG
185 Industry 4.0 Opportunities and challenges of the industrial internet <p>The fourth industrial revolution ? characterised by the increasing</p>
<p>digitization and interconnection of products, value chains and business</p>
<p>models ? has arrived in the industrial sector. Our study, Industry 4.0 ?</p>
<p>opportunities and challenges of the industrial internet, is based on a</p>
<p>survey of 235 German industrial companies and was conducted by</p>
<p>the market research institution TNS Emnid.</p>
PwC Volkmar Koch 외 다수
186 Infectious Diseases: preparing for the future Future Threats <p>The Foresight project: Infectious Diseases: preparing for the future, looks 10?25 years into the future to consider infectious diseases in humans, animals and plants. It particularly focuses on the UK and sub-Saharan Africa as examples of developed and developing regions. Its primary aim is to produce a vision of new systems for disease detection, identification and monitoring, and to assess how they might transform our capabilities in managing future risks. It follows that a starting point is necessarily an appreciation of the evolving threat, and the factors driving changes in risk.1 Both of these are the subject of this report.&nbsp;</p>
<p>The project reviewed the present-day burden of diseases in humans, animals and plants, and also considered the importance of infectious disease in meeting the Millennium Development Goals.&nbsp;</p>
OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND INNOVATION OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND INNOVATION
187 Infrastructure to 2030-TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT,WATER AND ELECTRICITY <p>&nbsp;The purpose of the project is to take stock of the long-term opportunities and challenges facing infrastructures worldwide, and to propose a set of policy recommendations to OECD governments that aim to enhance infrastructures’ contribution to economic and social development in the years to come. The project has a time horizon out to 2020-30. It covers energy, surface transport, water and telecommunications, and focuses on OECD countries and some of the so-called Big 5 economies (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and Russia). One of the expected benefits of this multi-sectoral approach to infrastructures is that it will generate interesting common lines of enquiry and give rise to instructive cross-sectoral implications</p> OECD OECD
188 integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone <p>The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in consultation with partners, initiated an assessment designed to provide an interface between knowledge and action, science and policy, and to provide a scientifically credible basis for informed decision-making. The result is a comprehensive analysis of drivers of emissions, trends in concentrations, and impacts on climate, human health and ecosystems of Black carbon, tropospheric O3 and its precursors. BC, tropospheric O3 and methane (CH4) are often referred to as short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) as they have a short lifetime in the atmosphere (days to about a decade) relative to carbon dioxide (CO2).</p> UNEP UNEP
189 Integrated Research and Industrial Roadmap for European NanoScience & Technology <p>This document aims at presenting the NANOfutures Integrated Research and Innovation Roadmap(2013-2025), including detailed implementation plan focusing more on actions up to 2020.<br />This roadmap represents an open working document, developed within the European Coordination<br />and Support Action NANOfutures (contract number NMP4-CA-2010-266789). This document<br />will be further developed with all NANOfutures Platform members and other stakeholders from the<br />Nano related Community who would like to contribute.</p> NANOfutures Coordination and Support action NANOfutures Coordination and Support action
190 International approaches to understanding the future of manufacturing <p>Manufacturing industries are going through a period of significant change and</p>
<p>uncertainty, with opportunities and challenges to future manufacturing competitiveness</p>
<p>driven by a range of factors including: the increasingly complex and globalised nature of</p>
<p>industrial systems; the dramatic reduction in manufacturing timescales and acceleration</p>
<p>of technological innovation; and the growing need for sustainable, resource-efficient</p>
<p>production.</p>
Foresight, Government Office for Science, UK Dr. Eoin O’Sullivan, Nicola Mitchell
191 International Energy Outlook 2013 <p>With world GDP rising by 3.6 percent per year, world energy use will grow by 56 percent between 2010 and 2040. Half of the increase is attributed to China and India.<br />Renewable energy and nuclear power are the world’s fastest-growing energy sources, each increasing by 2.5 percent per year; however, fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80 percent of world energy use through 2040</p>
<p>Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel in the outlook, supported by increasing supplies of shale gas, particularly in the United States</p>
<p>Coal grows faster than petroleum consumption until after 2030, mostly due to increases in China’s consumption of coal, and slow growth in oil demand in OECD member countries</p>
<p>Given current policies and regulations, worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to increase 46 percent by 2040, reaching 45 billion metric tons in 2040</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
EIA Adam Sieminski
192 International Technology Agreements for Climate Change <p>This paper examines the effect of multilateral energy technology initiatives, so called Implementing Agreements, on international research collaboration in seven important climate change mitigation technologies. The analysis is conducted using patent data on 33 OECD countries during the period 1970-2009. We find that co-invention is significantly affected by the membership in the Implementing Agreement. Extending adherence to other countries would increase co-invention by about 90% in the case of wind and fuel cells, and even more in the case of biofuels, solar PV and CCS. Given the urgency to develop effective international mechanisms to mitigate climate change, these results are encouraging and the topic is an important area for further policy research.&nbsp;</p> OECD Ivan Ha??i?, Nick Johnstone,Nadja KahrobaieJEL
193 Investment for the Future Benchmarking IT Industry Competitiveness 2011 <p>Maintaining investment levels during an&nbsp;economic downturn is no easy feat,</p>
<p>but business leaders know the benefit:&nbsp;the ability to compete at a higher level when&nbsp;markets recover. The same may be said of the&nbsp;information technology (IT) industry and national&nbsp;governments, as continued attention to factors&nbsp;such as education, research and development(R&amp;D), high-speed communications networks, and&nbsp;access to finance is needed to ensure the sector’s&nbsp;global competitiveness in the longer term.</p>
Business Software Alliance the Economist Intelligence Unit
194 Issues Affecting the Future of Agriculture and Food Security for Europe and Central Asia <p>The purpose of this paper is to suggest how the thematic issues in each section are related to the future of agriculture and food security in Europe (West and East) and Central Asia. &nbsp;These sections of the paper state the basic issues under each theme, outline the latest literature on the subtopics, discuss the main issues that are important for this region, and suggest how FAO and member countries can address these issues through policy and institutional actions and reforms. Public goods provision is a cross-cutting issue. Although the scope of this paper covers all of the region, there will be considerably more emphasis on the transition countries of the region, including the EU-12, and less on the EU-15 or old member states (OMS) of the EU. &nbsp;</p> FAO Regional Office for Europe and Central Asia Policy Studies on Rural Transition William H. Meyers, Jadwiga R. Ziolkowska, Monika Tothova and Kateryna Goychuk
195 IT 기술예측조사 <p>&nbsp;본 조사는 정보통신기술의 발전 속도와 방향, 범위 등에 대한 합리적인 전망을 통해 미래기술수요 및 기술발전의 체계적인 미래상을 제시하고, 미래 수요 및 예측 자료 등 철저한 사전기획 추진을 통한 국가 R&amp;D 전략 수립에 활용함으로써 지원과제기획 등 효과적인 기술개발계획 수립 추진을 목표로 한다.</p> 한국산업기술평가관리원(KEIT) 한국산업기술평가관리원(KEIT)
196 IT융합기술예측조사 <p>&nbsp;이 조사는 먼지 미래 사회 '메가트렌드(Megatrend)' 분석을 통해 앞으로 요구될 것으로 보이는 IT융합 산업의 잠재적 기술 니즈(Needs)를 발굴하고, 델파이 조사를 실시해 기술 니즈의 실현 시기와 기술 개발 필요성, 기술 개발 및 시장 보급 시기 등을 파악하고 미래 유망 기술을 도출하였다. 또한 IT융합의 미래를 체계적인 기술 발전 시나리오 작성 등의 방법으로 IT융합 분야의 미래상을 제시하였다.</p> 한국산업기술평가관리원(KEIT) 한국산업기술평가관리원(KEIT)
197 Japan Vision 2050 <p>&nbsp;</p> Science Council of Japan Science Council of Japan
198 JOURNALISM, MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2016 <p>This year’s key developments will centre on online video, mobile apps and further moves towards</p>
<p>distributed content. Mounting problems around online display advertising will lead to a burst of</p>
<p>innovation around journalism business models.</p>
Reuters Institute Digital News Project Nic Newman
199 KDI 경제전망 <p>&nbsp;우리 경제는 2013년에 2.6%의 성장률을 기록한 후, 2014년에는 수출과 내수모두 증가세가 확대되며 3.6%의 성장률을 기록할 전망 우리 경제는 2013년에 완만한 개선 추세를 보이면서 비교적 낮은 2.6%의 성장률을 기록한 후, 2014년에는 세계경제가 점차 회복되면서 수출 증가세가 확대되고 내수도 개선 추세가 지속되면서 3.6%의 성장률을 기록할 전망 소비자물가는 유가 하락 등으로 2013년에 1.8%의 낮은 상승률을 기록한 후, 2014년에는 물가상승세가 점차 확대되며 2.6%의 상승률을 기록할 것으로 전망 경상수지는 내수의 점진적인 개선과 원화가치 상승 등으로 흑자폭이 점차 축소되면서 2013년에 397억달러, 2014년에 307억달러 내외의 흑자를 기록할 전망</p> KDI 강동수 외
200 KISTEP 선정 미래유망기술 도출에 관한 연구 <p>급속한 과학기술의 발전이 우리사회에 미치는 영향은 더욱 커지고 있으며, 이러한 변화에 대응하기 위한 미래 상황의 예측은 점점 어려워 질 뿐 아니라 더욱 중요 해지고 있는 상황임&nbsp;, 우리의 실생활에 큰 파급효과를 가져올 주요 기술을 예측하여 전략적으로 대응함으로서 경제적 부가가치를 창출하고 사회적 기회비용을 줄이기 위한 노력이 더욱 절실해 지고 있음</p> 한국과학기술기획평가원(KISTEP) 손석호
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